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Citations for "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market"

by Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright

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  1. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 7, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  2. Albert Satorra & Antoni Bosch-Domenech & Jose Garcia-Montalvo & Rosemarie Nagel, 2002. "One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 00011, The Field Experiments Website.
  3. van der Heijden, E.C.M. & Nelissen, J.H.M. & Potters, J.J.M., 2007. "Opinions on the tax deductibility of mortgages and the consensus effect," Other publications TiSEM 7cdca9ce-578d-46c6-9189-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Berlemann, Michael & Vöpel, Henning, 2012. "Tournament incentives and asset price bubbles: Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 232-235.
  5. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
  6. van Raalte, C.L.J.P., 1996. "Market formation and market selection," Other publications TiSEM 5b11cea5-dfe7-4a8c-adb9-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  7. Burkhard C. Schipper & Jörg Oechssler, 2008. "Incentives for Subjects in Internet Experiments," Working Papers 81, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
  9. Andrea Mattozzi, 2010. "Policy Uncertainty, Electoral Securities, And Redistribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 45-71, 02.
  10. Catherine Eckel & Rick Wilson, 2006. "Internet cautions: Experimental games with internet partners," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-66, April.
  11. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 2002. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 2002-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Jan Hansen & Carsten Schmidt & Martin Strobel, 2004. "Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 459-463.
  13. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  14. Victor Tiberius & Christoph Rasche, 2011. "Prognosemärkte," Metrika, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 467-472, April.
  15. Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, EconWPA.
  16. David V. Budescu & Boris Maciejovsky, 2004. "The Effect of Monetary Feedback and Information Spillovers on Cognitive Errors: Evidence from Competitive Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2004-32, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  17. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, 1999. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II," CESifo Working Paper Series 221, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Pouget, Sébastien & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2012. "A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmation Bias in Financial Markets," TSE Working Papers 12-306, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  19. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
  20. Thomas A. Rietz, 1991. "Arbitrage," Discussion Papers 958, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  21. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  22. Bondarenko, Oleg & Bossaerts, Peter, 2000. "Expectations and learning in Iowa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 1535-1555, September.
  23. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
  24. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Herd behaviour experimental testing in laboratory artificial stock market settings. Behavioural foundations of stylised facts of financial returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4351-4372.
  25. Smith, Vernon L., 2002. "Constructivist and Ecological Rationality in Economics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2002-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
  26. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 468-496, June.
  27. Brian Knight, 2004. "Are Policy Platforms Capitalized into Equity Prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 10333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Carsten Schmidt & Jens Grossklags, 2004. "Interaction of Human and Artificial Agents on Double Auction Markets - Simulations and Laboratory Experiments," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-22, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  29. Agustin Casas & Yarine Fawaz & Andre Trindade, 2014. "Surprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections," Economics Working Papers we1416, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  30. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jorg & Roider, Andreas, 2007. "Herding with and without payoff externalities -- an internet experiment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 391-415, April.
  32. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  33. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
  34. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
  35. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
  36. Jens Grossklags & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "Artificial Software Agents on Thin Double Auction Markets - A Human Trader Experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-45, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  37. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009.
  38. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
  39. Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, 08.
  40. Mayhew, Brian W. & Vitalis, Adam, 2014. "Myopic loss aversion and market experience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-125.
  41. Wolk Leonard & Peeters Ronald, 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  42. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  43. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," TSE Working Papers 13-394, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  44. David Reiley & John List, 2008. "Field experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 00091, The Field Experiments Website.
  45. Calvin Blackwell & Robert Pickford, 2011. "The wisdom of the few or the wisdom of the many? An indirect test of the marginal trader hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 164-180, April.
  46. Michael Berlemann & Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2000. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp759, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  47. Lora R. Todorova & Bodo Vogt, 2012. "Herding in a Laboratory Asset Market with a Rich Action Set," FEMM Working Papers 120022, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  48. Richard Potthoff, 2013. "Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 101-122, January.
  49. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
  50. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
  51. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
  52. Engelmann, Dirk & Strobel, Martin, 2012. "Deconstruction and reconstruction of an anomaly," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 678-689.
  53. Lusk, Jayson L. & Norwood, F. Bailey, 2009. "Bridging the gap between laboratory experiments and naturally occurring markets: An inferred valuation method," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 236-250, September.
  54. Klaus Beckmann & Martin Werding, 1994. "Behaviour of a Small Political Call Market," Experimental 9410001, EconWPA.
  55. van der Heijden, E.C.M. & Nelissen, J.H.M. & Potters, J.J.M., 2004. "Opinions on Tax Deductions and the Consensus Effect in a Survey-Experiment," Discussion Paper 2004-23, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  56. Detlef Schoder & Johannes Putzke & Panagiotis Metaxas & Peter Gloor & Kai Fischbach, 2014. "Information Systems for “Wicked Problems”," Business & Information Systems Engineering, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10, February.
  57. Potters, J.J.M. & Jacobsen, B. & Schram, A. & van Winden, F.A.A.M. & Wit, J., 2000. "(In)accuracy of a European political stockmarket : The influence of common value structures," Other publications TiSEM 871eef99-1e85-4985-9e94-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  58. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
  59. Shogren, Jason F., 2006. "Experimental Methods and Valuation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 969-1027 Elsevier.
  60. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 1999. "Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 175-184, April.
  61. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  62. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & Kleinberg, Jon & Kleinberg, Robert & Tardos, Éva, 2015. "Introduction to computer science and economic theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-13.
  63. David M Pennock & Sandip Debnath & Eric Glover & C. Lee Giles, 2012. "Modelling Information Incorporation in Markets, with Application to Detecting and Explaining Events," Papers 1301.0594, arXiv.org.
  64. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  65. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
  66. R. Karina Gallardo & B. Wade Brorsen & Jayson Lusk, 2010. "Prediction markets: an experimental approach to forecasting cattle on feed," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(3), pages 414-426, November.
  67. Van de Walle, Bartel & Turoff, Murray, 2009. "Fuzzy relations for the analysis of traders' preferences in an information market game," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(3), pages 905-913, June.
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