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Citations for "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market"

by Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright

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  1. van Raalte, C.L.J.P., 1996. "Market formation and market selection," Other publications TiSEM 5b11cea5-dfe7-4a8c-adb9-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  2. Bossaerts, Peter & Bodarenko, Oleg, 1997. "Expectations and Learning in Iowa," Working Papers 989, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  3. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  4. Trindade, Andre & Fawaz, Yarine & Casas, Agustin, 2014. "Surprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1416, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  5. R. Karina Gallardo, 2010. "Prediction markets: an experimental approach to forecasting cattle on feed," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(3), pages 414-426, November.
  6. Mayhew, Brian W. & Vitalis, Adam, 2014. "Myopic loss aversion and market experience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-125.
  7. Burkhard C. Schipper & Jörg Oechssler, 2008. "Incentives for Subjects in Internet Experiments," Working Papers 81, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Hansen, Jan & Schmidt, Carsten & Strobel, Martin, 2001. "Manipulation in political stock markets: Preconditions and evidence," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,61, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  9. Shogren, Jason F., 2006. "Experimental Methods and Valuation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 969-1027 Elsevier.
  10. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
  11. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
  12. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
  13. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
  14. Calvin Blackwell & Robert Pickford, 2011. "The wisdom of the few or the wisdom of the many? An indirect test of the marginal trader hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 164-180, April.
  15. Chang, Yen-Cheng & Cheng, Hung-Wen, 2015. "Information environment and investor behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 250-264.
  16. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
  17. Dilger, Alexander, 2016. "Bedingte Aktiengeschäfte," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 08/2016, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
  18. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  19. Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
  20. Andrea Mattozzi, 2003. "Policy Uncertainty, Electoral Securities and Redistribution," Levine's Working Paper Archive 666156000000000260, David K. Levine.
  21. Victor Tiberius & Christoph Rasche, 2011. "Prognosemärkte," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 467-472, April.
  22. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
  23. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
  24. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
  25. Knight, Brian, 2006. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(4-5), pages 751-773, May.
  26. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2005. "Herding With and Without Payoff Externalities - An Internet Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Choi, Darwin & Hui, Sam K., 2014. "The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 614-629.
  28. Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
  29. David V. Budescu & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "The Effect of Payoff Feedback and Information Pooling on Reasoning Errors: Evidence from Experimental Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1829-1843, December.
  30. Lusk, Jayson L. & Norwood, F. Bailey, 2009. "Bridging the gap between laboratory experiments and naturally occurring markets: An inferred valuation method," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 236-250, September.
  31. Joachim R. Groeger, 2016. "The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets," Papers 1609.03471,
  32. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, 07.
  33. Berlemann, Michael & Vöpel, Henning, 2012. "Tournament incentives and asset price bubbles: Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 232-235.
  34. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," LERNA Working Papers 13.05.392, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  35. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
  36. Robert Reig & Ramona Schoder, 2010. "Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets And Surveys – An Experimental Study," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-19.
  37. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
  38. Antoni Bosch-Domenech & Jose Garcia-Montalvo & Rosemarie Nagel & Albert Satorra, 2002. "One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 00011, The Field Experiments Website.
  39. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, "undated". "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," IEW - Working Papers 002, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  40. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  41. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  42. Peeters R.J.A.P. & Wolk K.L., 2014. "Eliciting and aggregating individual expectations: An experimental study," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  43. Lora R. Todorova & Bodo Vogt, 2012. "Herding in a Laboratory Asset Market with a Rich Action Set," FEMM Working Papers 120022, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  44. Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, 08.
  45. Eline Heijden & Jan Nelissen & Jan Potters, 2007. "Opinions on the Tax Deductibility of Mortgages and the Consensus Effect," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 141-159, June.
  46. Carsten Schmidt & Jens Grossklags, 2004. "Interaction of Human and Artificial Agents on Double Auction Markets - Simulations and Laboratory Experiments," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-22, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  47. Richard Potthoff, 2013. "Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(1), pages 101-122, January.
  48. Potters, J.J.M. & Jacobsen, B. & Schram, A. & van Winden, F.A.A.M. & Wit, J., 2000. "(In)accuracy of a European political stockmarket : The influence of common value structures," Other publications TiSEM 871eef99-1e85-4985-9e94-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  49. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
  50. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 1999. "Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 175-184, April.
  51. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
  52. Van de Walle, Bartel & Turoff, Murray, 2009. "Fuzzy relations for the analysis of traders' preferences in an information market game," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(3), pages 905-913, June.
  53. Pouget, Sébastien & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2012. "A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmation Bias in Financial Markets," IDEI Working Papers 720, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Aug 2016.
  54. David V. Budescu & Boris Maciejovsky, 2004. "The Effect of Monetary Feedback and Information Spillovers on Cognitive Errors: Evidence from Competitive Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2004-32, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  55. Detlef Schoder & Johannes Putzke & Panagiotis Metaxas & Peter Gloor & Kai Fischbach, 2014. "Information Systems for “Wicked Problems”," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 6(1), pages 3-10, February.
  56. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
  57. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
  58. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & Kleinberg, Jon & Kleinberg, Robert & Tardos, Éva, 2015. "Introduction to computer science and economic theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-13.
  59. Catherine Eckel & Rick Wilson, 2006. "Internet cautions: Experimental games with internet partners," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 53-66, April.
  60. Glenn W. Harrison & John A. List, 2004. "Field Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1009-1055, December.
  61. Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, EconWPA.
  62. Klaus Beckmann & Martin Werding, 1994. "Behaviour of a Small Political Call Market," Experimental 9410001, EconWPA.
  63. Smith, Vernon L., 2002. "Constructivist and Ecological Rationality in Economics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2002-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
  64. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
  65. Wang, Qin & Zhang, Jun, 2015. "Does individual investor trading impact firm valuation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 120-135.
  66. Murtha, Brian R., 2013. "Peaking at the right time: Perceptions, expectations, and effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 62-72.
  67. Nicholas Seybert & Robert Bloomfield, 2009. "Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 738-751, May.
  68. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Herd behaviour experimental testing in laboratory artificial stock market settings. Behavioural foundations of stylised facts of financial returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4351-4372.
  69. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
  70. Tobias Kranz & Florian Teschner & Christof Weinhardt, 2015. "Beware of Performance Indicators," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 57(6), pages 349-361, December.
  71. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  72. Thomas A. Rietz, 1991. "Arbitrage," Discussion Papers 958, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  73. David Peón & Manel Antelo & Anxo Calvo, 2016. "Overconfidence and risk seeking in credit markets: an experimental game," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 511-552, July.
  74. David M Pennock & Sandip Debnath & Eric Glover & C. Lee Giles, 2012. "Modelling Information Incorporation in Markets, with Application to Detecting and Explaining Events," Papers 1301.0594,
  75. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Hoque, Hafiz, 2015. "Return predictability and the ‘wisdom of crowds’: Genetic Programming trading algorithms, the Marginal Trader Hypothesis and the Hayek Hypothesis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 85-98.
  76. Berlemann, Michael, 2008. "Forecasting the ECB's main refinancing rate. A field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 379-383, May.
  77. Carsten Schmidt & Axel Werwatz, 2002. "How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  78. M. Berlemann & K. Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," Post-Print halshs-00259473, HAL.
  79. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
  80. van der Heijden, E.C.M. & Nelissen, J.H.M. & Potters, J.J.M., 2004. "Opinions on Tax Deductions and the Consensus Effect in a Survey-Experiment," Discussion Paper 2004-23, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  81. Joyce E. Berg & George R. Neumann & Thomas A. Rietz, 2009. "Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 348-361, March.
  82. Jens Grossklags & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "Artificial Software Agents on Thin Double Auction Markets - A Human Trader Experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-45, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  83. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, 1999. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II," CESifo Working Paper Series 221, CESifo Group Munich.
  84. Wolk Leonard & Peeters Ronald, 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  85. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2016. "Forecasting Meat Prices using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229858, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  86. Engelmann, Dirk & Strobel, Martin, 2012. "Deconstruction and reconstruction of an anomaly," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 678-689.
  87. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
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