IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v5y2009i1n8.html

Estimating the Effect of the Red Card in Soccer: When to Commit an Offense in Exchange for Preventing a Goal Opportunity

Author

Listed:
  • Vecer Jan

    (Columbia University)

  • Kopriva Frantisek

    (CERGE-EI, Charles University and The Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Ichiba Tomoyuki

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

We study the effect of the red card in a soccer game. A red card is given by a referee to signify that a player has been sent off following serious misconduct. The player who has been sent off must leave the game immediately and cannot be replaced during the game. His team must continue the game with one player fewer. We estimate the effect of the red card from betting data on the FIFA World Cup 2006 and Euro 2008, showing that the scoring intensity of the penalized team drops significantly, while the scoring intensity of the opposing team increases slightly. We show that a red card typically leads to a smaller number of goals scored during the game when a stronger team is penalized, but it can lead to an increased number of goals when a weaker team is punished. We also show when it is better to commit a red card offense in exchange for the prevention of a goal opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Vecer Jan & Kopriva Frantisek & Ichiba Tomoyuki, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of the Red Card in Soccer: When to Commit an Offense in Exchange for Preventing a Goal Opportunity," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:5:y:2009:i:1:n:8
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1146
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1559-0410.1146?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    2. Garicano, Luis & Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio, 2005. "Sabotage in Tournaments: Making the Beautiful Game a Bit Less Beautiful," CEPR Discussion Papers 5231, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Douglas N. VanDerwerken & Jacek Rothert & Brice M. Nguelifack, 2018. "Does the Threat of Suspension Curb Dangerous Behavior in Soccer? A Case Study From the Premier League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 759-785, August.
    2. Travis Richardson & Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2023. "Emotional Cues and the Demand for Televised Sports: Evidence from the UEFA Champions League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 993-1025, December.
    3. Raphael Flepp & Tim Pawlowski & Travis Richardson, 2025. "Suspense and Surprise in European Football," Papers 2506.21253, arXiv.org.
    4. A. C. Titman & D. A. Costain & P. G. Ridall & K. Gregory, 2015. "Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 659-683, June.
    5. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Ian G. McHale & J.D. Tena, 2020. "Unscripted Drama: Soccer Audience Response To Suspense, Surprise, And Shock," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 881-896, April.
    6. Mark Richard & Jan Vecer, 2021. "Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Feng Guanhao & Polson Nicholas & Xu Jianeng, 2016. "The market for English Premier League (EPL) odds," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 167-178, December.
    8. Jakub Červený & Jan C. Ours & Martin A. Tuijl, 2018. "Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 883-903, September.
    9. Sebastian del Bano Rollin & Zsolt Bihari & Tomaso Aste, 2018. "Risk-Neutral Pricing and Hedging of In-Play Football Bets," Papers 1811.03931, arXiv.org.
    10. Sarkar Sumit, 2018. "Paradox of crosses in association football (soccer) – a game-theoretic explanation," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 25-36, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Beckmann & Martin Werding, 1994. "Behaviour of a Small Political Call Market," Experimental 9410001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 313-332.
    3. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    4. Süssmuth Bernd & Wagner Stefan, 2012. "A Market’s Reward Scheme, Media Attention, and the Transitory Success of Managerial Change," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 258-278, June.
    5. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
    6. Dur, Robert & Sol, Joeri, 2010. "Social interaction, co-worker altruism, and incentives," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 293-301, July.
    7. Dai, Min & Jia, Yanwei & Kou, Steven, 2021. "The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 561-578.
    8. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
    9. Glenn Dutcher & Daniela Glätzle-Rützler & Dmitry Ryvkin, 2016. "Don't hate the player, hate the game: Uncovering the foundations of cheating in contests," Working Papers 2016-29, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    10. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Mantilla, Cesar, 2019. "Emotional expressions by sports teams: An analysis of World Cup soccer player portraits," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    11. Francesco Cecchi & Koen Leuveld & Maarten Voors, 2016. "Conflict Exposure and Competitiveness: Experimental Evidence from the Football Field in Sierra Leone," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 405-435.
    12. Dilger, Alexander, 2016. "Bedingte Aktiengeschäfte," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 08/2016, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    13. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jorg & Roider, Andreas, 2007. "Herding with and without payoff externalities -- an internet experiment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 391-415, April.
    14. Reade J. James & van Ours Jan C., 2024. "Consumer Perceptions Matter: A Case Study of an Anomaly in English Football," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(5-6), pages 605-629.
    15. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
    16. Jeffrey Carpenter & Peter Hans Matthews & John Schirm, 2010. "Tournaments and Office Politics: Evidence from a Real Effort Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 504-517, March.
    17. Lora R. Todorova & Bodo Vogt, 2012. "Herding in a Laboratory Asset Market with a Rich Action Set," FEMM Working Papers 120022, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    18. Ronald Peeters & Leonard Wolk, 2019. "Elicitation of expectations using Colonel Blotto," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(1), pages 268-288, March.
    19. Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, August.
    20. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Hoque, Hafiz, 2015. "Return predictability and the ‘wisdom of crowds’: Genetic Programming trading algorithms, the Marginal Trader Hypothesis and the Hayek Hypothesis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 85-98.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:5:y:2009:i:1:n:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.