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Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

Author

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  • Cervený, Jakub

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • van Ours, Jan

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • van Tuijl, Martin

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-o of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.

Suggested Citation

  • Cervený, Jakub & van Ours, Jan & van Tuijl, Martin, 2016. "Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches," Discussion Paper 2016-031, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:0801d15e-57b6-4e14-a6b9-4a245fc257d9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Mario Mechtel & Agnes Bäker & Tobias Brändle & Karin Vetter, 2011. "Red Cards," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(6), pages 621-646, December.
    3. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2011. "Country-Specific Goal-Scoring in the ‘Dying Seconds’ of International Football Matches," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 6(2), pages 138-154, May.
    4. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
    5. Caliendo, Marco & Radic, Dubravko, 2006. "Ten Do It Better, Do They? An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth," IZA Discussion Papers 2158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Bryson R. Pope & Nolan G. Pope, 2015. "Own-Nationality Bias: Evidence From Uefa Champions League Football Referees," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 1292-1304, April.
    7. A. C. Titman & D. A. Costain & P. G. Ridall & K. Gregory, 2015. "Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 659-683, June.
    8. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2010. "The 12th man?: refereeing bias in English and German soccer," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 431-449.
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    Cited by:

    1. De Meyere, Arne & Vanruymbeke, Ward & Baert, Stijn, 2018. "Player Dismissal and Full Time Results in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League," IZA Discussion Papers 11722, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    assocation football; goal-scoring; red card; world cup foorball matches;

    JEL classification:

    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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