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No Better Moment to Score a Goal than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested

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  • Baert, Stijn

    (Ghent University)

  • Amez, Simon

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

We test the soccer myth suggesting that a particularly good moment to score a goal is just before half time. To this end, rich data on 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are analysed. In contrast to the myth, we find that, conditional on the goal difference and other game characteristics at half time, the final goal difference at the advantage of the home team is 0.520 goals lower in case of a goal just before half time by this team. We show that this finding relates to this team's lower probability of scoring a goal during the second half.

Suggested Citation

  • Baert, Stijn & Amez, Simon, 2016. "No Better Moment to Score a Goal than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested," IZA Discussion Papers 9980, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9980
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gomez, Miguel-Angel & Reus, Marc & Parmar, Nimai & Travassos, Bruno, 2020. "Exploring elite soccer teams’ performances during different match-status periods of close matches’ comebacks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Andrea Albanese & Stijn Baert & Olivier Verstraeten, 2020. "Twelve eyes see more than eight. Referee bias and the introduction of additional assistant referees in soccer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Simon Amez & Stijn Baert & Brecht Neyt & Maarten Vandemaele, 2020. "No evidence for second leg home advantage in recent seasons of European soccer cups," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 156-160, January.
    5. De Meyere, Arne & Vanruymbeke, Ward & Baert, Stijn, 2018. "Player Dismissal and Full Time Results in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League," IZA Discussion Papers 11722, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Rubén Maneiro & José Luís Losada & Claudio A. Casal & Antonio Ardá, 2021. "Identification of Explanatory Variables in Possession of the Ball in High-Performance Women’s Football," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Philippe Meier & Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "The advantage of scoring just before the halftime break – pure myth? Quasi-experimental evidence from European football," Working Papers 382, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    8. Henrich R Greve & Jo Nesbø & Nils Rudi & Marat Salikhov, 2020. "Are goals scored just before halftime worth more? An old soccer wisdom statistically tested," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-11, October.
    9. Philippe Meier & Raphael Flepp & Maximilian Ruedisser & Egon Franck, 2020. "The Advantage of Scoring Just Before the Half-Time Break—Pure Myth? Quasi-Experimental Evidence From European Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 548-565, June.
    10. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    11. Jordi Arboix-Alió & Guillem Trabal & Raúl Hileno & Joan Aguilera-Castells & Azahara Fort-Vanmeerhaeghe & Bernat Buscà, 2021. "The Influence of Individual Set-Pieces in Elite Rink Hockey Match Outcomes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-10, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fixed effects regression models; soccer; sports; goal scoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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