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No Better Moment to Score a Goal than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested

Author

Listed:
  • Baert, Stijn

    () (Ghent University)

  • Amez, Simon

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

We test the soccer myth suggesting that a particularly good moment to score a goal is just before half time. To this end, rich data on 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League are analysed. In contrast to the myth, we find that, conditional on the goal difference and other game characteristics at half time, the final goal difference at the advantage of the home team is 0.520 goals lower in case of a goal just before half time by this team. We show that this finding relates to this team's lower probability of scoring a goal during the second half.

Suggested Citation

  • Baert, Stijn & Amez, Simon, 2016. "No Better Moment to Score a Goal than Just Before Half Time? A Soccer Myth Statistically Tested," IZA Discussion Papers 9980, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vincenzo Scoppa, 2008. "Are subjective evaluations biased by social factors or connections? An econometric analysis of soccer referee decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 123-140, August.
    2. Page, Katie & Page, Lionel, 2010. "Alone against the crowd: Individual differences in referees' ability to cope under pressure," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 192-199, April.
    3. Bas Weel, 2011. "Does Manager Turnover Improve Firm Performance? Evidence from Dutch Soccer, 1986–2004," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 279-303, September.
    4. Lawrence M. Kahn, 2000. "The Sports Business as a Labor Market Laboratory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 75-94, Summer.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    soccer; sports; goal scoring; fixed effects regression models;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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