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Ten Do It Better, Do They?: An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth

Author

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  • Marco Caliendo
  • Dubravko Radic

Abstract

In this paper we investigate how the expulsion of a player influences the out-come of a football match. Common sense implies a negative impact for the affected team. However, an old football myth suggests that such an expulsion might also be beneficial since it increases the team spirit as well as the efforts of the affected team. We make use of a unique dataset containing all games played in a World Cup Championship between 1930 and 2002 and follow a twofold econometric strategy: We start with a conditional maximum likelihood estimator which is independent of the relative strength of the teams before we extend this estimator to take the relative strength of the teams and the minute of the expulsion into account. Our results indicate that the scoring intensities of both teams do not differ after the expulsion. Conducting scenario analysis reveals that the impact of a red card depends on the minute of the expulsion and does not have an impact at all if given at the end of the first half or later.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Caliendo & Dubravko Radic, 2006. "Ten Do It Better, Do They?: An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 592, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp592
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Garicano & Ignacio Palacios-Huerta & Canice Prendergast, 2005. "Favoritism Under Social Pressure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 208-216, May.
    2. Dohmen, Thomas, 2005. "Social Pressure Influences Decisions of Individuals: Evidence from the Behavior of Football Referees," IZA Discussion Papers 1595, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerveny, Jakub & van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin A., 2016. "Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches," IZA Discussion Papers 10174, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2007. "The Twelfth Man? Refereeing Bias in English and German Soccer," Working Papers 0707, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    3. Bäker Agnes & Vetter Karin & Mechtel Mario, 2012. "Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 224-246, June.
    4. Mechtel, Mario & Brändle, Tobias & Stribeck, Agnes & Vetter, Karin, 2010. "Red Cards: Not Such Bad News For Penalized Guest Teams," MPRA Paper 21430, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poisson process; (un)conditional likelihood; football; red card effect;

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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