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Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II

  • Bruno S. Frey
  • Marcel Kucher

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper, we analyse government bond prices of Germany and Austria traded on the Swiss bourse during WWII. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and the loss and gain of national sovereignty. Other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices: The most prominent example is Germany's capitulation in 1945. The analysis of financial markets provides a fruitful method to evaluate the importance contemporaries attached to historical events.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-1999/WP221.PDF
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 221.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_221
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  1. Russell Sobel, 1998. "Exchange rate evidence on the effectiveness of United Nations policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 1-25, April.
  2. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December.
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Smith, Vernon L, 1982. "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 165-79, April.
  5. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Claudia Goldin, 1995. "Cliometrics and the Nobel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 191-208, Spring.
  7. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-18, September.
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