IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Trade Shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A Global VAR Analysis

  • Mustafa Yavuz Cakir
  • Alain Kabundi

This paper studies the trade linkages between South Africa and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. We apply a global vector autoregressive model (global VAR) to investigate the degree of trade linkages and shock transmission between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the period 1995Q1-2009Q4. The model contains 32 countries and has two different estimations: the first one consists of 24 countries and one region, with the 8 countries in the euroarea treated as a single economy; and the second estimation contains 20 countries and two regions, with the BRIC and the euro area countries respectively treated as a single economy. The results suggest that trade linkages exist between our focus economies; however the magnitude differs between countries. Shocks from each BRIC country are shown to have considerable impact on South African real imports and output.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econrsa.org/home/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=365&Itemid=67
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 250.

as
in new window

Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:250
Contact details of provider: Postal: Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town
Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ballabriga, Fernando & Sebastian, Miguel & Valles, Javier, 1999. "European asymmetries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 233-253, August.
  2. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Economics Working Papers 920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  3. Murray Leibbrandt & Ingrid Woolard & Arden Finn & Jonathan Argent, 2010. "Trends in South African Income Distribution and Poverty since the Fall of Apartheid," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.
  4. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther, 2007. "What is Middle Class about the Middle Classes Around the World?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6613, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  6. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Nobuaki Yamashita, 2005. "Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  10. Matthias Doepke, . "Occupational Choice and the Spirit of Capitalism," UCLA Economics Online Papers 419, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. Çigdem Akin & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Changing Nature of North-South Linkages; Stylized Facts and Explanations," IMF Working Papers 07/280, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  14. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  15. Gu, Jing & Humphrey, John & Messner, Dirk, 2008. "Global Governance and Developing Countries: The Implications of the Rise of China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 274-292, February.
  16. Barro, Robert J., 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Scholarly Articles 3451297, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
  18. Evenett, Simon J, 2007. "EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System," CEPR Discussion Papers 6284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Easterly, William, 2001. " The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-35, December.
  20. Kabundi, Alain & Loots, Elsabe, 2007. "Co-movement between South Africa and the Southern African Development Community: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 737-748, September.
  21. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, September.
  22. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4733, The World Bank.
  23. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373, September.
  24. Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  26. Kei-Mu Yi & M. Ayhan Kose, 2005. "Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation Between Trade and Comovement?," IMF Working Papers 05/204, International Monetary Fund.
  27. McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 210-234, February.
  28. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 2013. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2013-12, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  29. Anthony B. Atkinson & Andrea Brandolini, 2011. "On the identification of the “middle class”," Working Papers 217, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  30. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
  31. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  32. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  33. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
  34. Antonio Estache & D. Leipziger, 2009. "Stuck in the Middle: Is Fiscal Policy Failing the Middle Class?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44102, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  35. Easterly, William, 2007. "Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 755-776, November.
  36. Milanovic, Branko & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2001. "Decomposing world income distribution : does the world have a middle class ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2562, The World Bank.
  37. Vivek Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications Of South African Economic Growth For The Rest Of Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(2), pages 229-242, 06.
  38. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  39. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Joe C. Davis & John H. Huston, 1992. "The Shrinking Middle-Income Class: A Multivariate Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 277-285, Summer.
  41. Lennart Petersson, 2005. "Export Diversification And Intra-Industry Trade In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 785-802, December.
  42. Nancy Birdsall, 2010. "The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich and the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest," Working Papers 207, Center for Global Development.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yoemna Mosaval)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.