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Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries

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  • Mustafa Yavuz Cakir and Alain Kabundi

Abstract

This study examines the impact of China’s dominant position among the BRIS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Particularly, by using a dynamic factor model estimated over the period 1995Q2-2009Q4, it investigates how supply and demand shocks from China are transmitted to these economies. The results show that China's supply shocks are more important than its demand shocks. Supply shocks produce positive and signifiant output responses in all BRIS countries. International trade is an important channel for the transmission of shocks across China and BRIS countries indicating that supply and demand shocks in China do not have similar e¤ects on the BRIS countries and therefore they require different policy responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Yavuz Cakir and Alain Kabundi, 2013. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," Working Papers 362, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:362
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    Keywords

    Dynamic Factor Model; Supply and demand shocks; Sign restrictions; BRICS;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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