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China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects

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  • Dwight H. PERKINS

Abstract

Our forecast of China's economic future is based primarily on the supply side growth accounting model. The life cycle model of household saving provides us with the most plausible explanation for a continued high rate of savings and investment. China's labor force will soon stop growing, but migration out of agriculture should have little impact on farm output while providing a steady stream of labor to the modern more productive sectors. There is also room for rapid expansion of human capital. Maintaining high productivity growth will depend primarily on strengthening currently weak institutions, notably the financial sector and, more importantly, the legal system.

Suggested Citation

  • Dwight H. PERKINS, 2006. "China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 15-40, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:1:y:2006:i:1:p:15-40
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2006.00002.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    2. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
    3. Yusuf Shahid & M. Anjum Altaf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2004. "Global Change and East Asian Policy Initiatives," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14928, April.
    4. Alwyn Young, 2000. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," NBER Working Papers 7856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aart Kraay, 2000. "Household Saving in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 545-570, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert W. Fogel, 2008. "The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth: Geography, Institutions, and the Knowledge Economy, pages 311-354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert William Fogel & Enid M. Fogel & Mark Guglielmo & Nathaniel Grotte, 2013. "Acknowledgments, References, Index," NBER Chapters, in: Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics, pages 119-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    4. Yu Yongding, 2008. "China’s Economic Growth, Global Economic Crisis and China’s Policy Responses (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 337-355.
    5. repec:rza:wpaper:362 is not listed on IDEAS

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