Business Cycle Co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC Countries
This paper investigates the co-movement of business cycles between South Africa and the other BRICS countries namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the so-called BRICs. In particular, it identi.es the nature and key features of the co-movement of cycles of South African economy with cycles of the BRICs. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2-2009Q4. We .nd signi.cant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement diÂ¤ers with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China, and Russia lead South Africa in the long-run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the .ndings imply that the .rst two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.
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