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Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

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  • M. Y. Çakır
  • A. Kabundi

Abstract

This article examines the relationships between South African economy and the economies of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). In particular, it identifies the nature and key features of the co-movement of South African business cycles with cycles of the BRIC countries. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2 to 2009Q4. We found significant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement differs with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China and Russia lead South Africa in the long run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the findings imply that the first two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Y. Çakır & A. Kabundi, 2013. "Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4698-4718, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:33:p:4698-4718
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.797562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2002. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2002/229, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
    4. Mr. Ilan Goldfajn & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 1997/087, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    2. Biyase Mduduzi & Rooderick September, 2018. "Determinants of FDI in BRICS Countries: Panel Data Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 35-48, August.
    3. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mabe, Queen Magadi, 2020. "How financially integrated are trading blocs in Africa?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 84-94.
    4. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2017. "Assessing the readiness of the BRICS grouping for mutually beneficial financial integration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 204-219, November.
    5. repec:rza:wpaper:362 is not listed on IDEAS

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