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Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

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  • M. Y. Çakır
  • A. Kabundi

Abstract

This article examines the relationships between South African economy and the economies of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). In particular, it identifies the nature and key features of the co-movement of South African business cycles with cycles of the BRIC countries. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2 to 2009Q4. We found significant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement differs with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China and Russia lead South Africa in the long run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the findings imply that the first two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Y. Çakır & A. Kabundi, 2013. "Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4698-4718, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:33:p:4698-4718
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.797562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2002. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 02/229, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, "undated". "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, "undated". "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:3:p:430-454 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/05- Transmission of China’s Shocks to the BRIS Countries," Papers 6345, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:e204-e219 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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