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A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa

  • Janine Aron
  • John Muellbauer
  • B. Smit

We build a 4-equation model of the inflation process in South Africa (which has recently adopted inflation targeting), including the exchange rate, consumer prices, producer price, and import prices. This provides useful information on the speed and extent of exchange rate pass-through, and illuminates the various channels through which monetary policy influences inflation. The model is in the tradition of central bank models of the inflation process, but carefully tests for asymmetries, structural breaks and expectations effects, and applies a range of econometric tests and methods to refute the charge that such models necessarily impose .incredible. restrictions, Sims (1980).

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File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2004-08text.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2004-08.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2004-08
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  7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  8. Judith A. Chevalier & David S. Scharfstein, 1994. "Capital Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper Series 2102, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  13. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
  17. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips Curve: Closed Economy versus Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Barth, Marvin J III & Ramey, Valerie A, 2000. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmissions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rm5q9sk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  20. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Brian Kahn, 1998. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  21. Bayoumi, Tamim A, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Consumption in the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 536-39, August.
  22. Aron, Janine & Ayogu, Melvin, 1997. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 150-92, Supplemen.
  23. Christopher A. Sims, 1996. "Macroeconomics and Methodology," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 105-120, Winter.
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