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Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004

  • Aron, Janine
  • Muellbauer, John

This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy in South Africa in 1994-2004 in terms of design, the operational framework, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) understanding of monetary policy transmission and the transparency, credibility and predictability of monetary policy. Quantitative indexes of transparency in 1994 and 2004 are compared and expectations data and forward interest rate data used to assess the credibility and predictability of policy under inflation targeting. The forecasting performance of the SARB is evaluated, and monetary policy decisions taken in response to external and domestic shocks assessed. The impact of monetary policy on the level of real interest rates and the role for complementary policies are examined.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5831.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5831
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  1. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 509-544, September.
  6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. David Pearce, 2005. "Paradoxes in Biodiversity Conservation," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(3), pages 57-69, July.
  8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  10. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  13. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2003. "The Currency Premium and Local-Currency Denominated Debt Costs in South Africa," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
  14. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating Monetary Policy rules for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2001-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
  17. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, EconWPA.
  19. Barth, Marvin J III & Ramey, Valerie A, 2000. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmissions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rm5q9sk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  20. Bean, Charles & Larsen, Jens D. J. & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory, evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 0113, European Central Bank.
  21. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," FMG Discussion Papers dp547, Financial Markets Group.
  22. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Macro-stability and Growth," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(4), pages 123-147, October.
  23. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  24. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 1999. "Reflections on the South African rand crisis of 1996 and its consequences," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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