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Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004

  • Aron, Janine
  • Muellbauer, John

This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy in South Africa in 1994-2004 in terms of design, the operational framework, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) understanding of monetary policy transmission and the transparency, credibility and predictability of monetary policy. Quantitative indexes of transparency in 1994 and 2004 are compared and expectations data and forward interest rate data used to assess the credibility and predictability of policy under inflation targeting. The forecasting performance of the SARB is evaluated, and monetary policy decisions taken in response to external and domestic shocks assessed. The impact of monetary policy on the level of real interest rates and the role for complementary policies are examined.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5831.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5831
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  1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 2656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. N/A, 1996. "Note:," Foreign Trade Review, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, vol. 31(1-2), pages 1-1, January.
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  4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & B. Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  5. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
  6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  7. Hyun Shin, 2001. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Economics Series Working Papers 1999-W25, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 3595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89.
  11. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  13. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2003. "The Currency Premium and Local-Currency Denominated Debt Costs in South Africa," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
  14. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating Monetary Policy rules for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2001-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2000. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Working Papers 7675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," FMG Discussion Papers dp547, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. David Pearce, 2005. "Paradoxes in Biodiversity Conservation," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(3), pages 57-69, July.
  20. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 1999. "Reflections on the South African rand crisis of 1996 and its consequences," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  21. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28.
  22. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial Liberalization, Consumption and Debt in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  23. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  24. Bean, Charles & Larsen, Jens D. J. & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory, evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 0113, European Central Bank.
  25. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Macro-stability and Growth," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(4), pages 123-147, October.
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