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Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies

  • Alessandro Flamini

    ()

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

Can the choice of the target inflation index in an open-economy affect the central bank ability to forecast the interest rate path? Adopting a New Keynesian set up where the central bank faces real-world model uncertainty, this paper shows that targeting the domestic price index instead of the consumer price index substantially improves the accuracy in the distribution forecast of the interest rate. The policy implication is that adopting the domestic price index may increase the central bank's convenience of publishing the expected interest rate path.

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File URL: http://economia.unipv.it/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/demwpp/DEMWP0027.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management in its series DEM Working Papers Series with number 027.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:027
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