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Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa

In: Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets

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  • Janine Aron
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

Financial globalization has made monetary policy formulation in emerging market economies increasingly complicated. This timely set of studies looks at the turmoil in global financial markets, which coupled with volatile inflation poses serious challenges for central banks in these countries. Featuring papers from the research frontier and front-line policymakers in developing and emerging market economies, the book addresses questions such as ‘What monetary policy framework is most suitable for these countries to confront the new challenges while they continue to open up to trade and financial flows?’, ‘What are the linkages between monetary stability and financial stability?’ and ‘Is inflation targeting or a fixed exchange rate regime preferable for developing and emerging markets?’

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:13504_15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stan A. Du Plessis, 2005. "Proposals For Strengthening The Sarb'S Inflation Targeting Regime," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(2), pages 337-354, June.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Macro-stability and Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(4), pages 123-147, October.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Aron, Janine & Kahn, Brian & Kingdon, Geeta (ed.), 2009. "South African Economic Policy under Democracy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199551460.
    6. S.A. Du Plessis, 2005. "The Democratic Deficit And Inflation Targeting," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 93-104, March.
    7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.
    9. Lars E.O. Svensson & Kjetil Houg & Haakon O.Aa. Solheim & Erling Steigum, 2002. "An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway," Working Papers 120, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. SA du Plessis, 2003. "Much Ado about Nothing: A Note on the Modified Inflation Target," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(2), pages 211-214, June.
    11. S.A. Du Plessis, 2002. "EVALUATING THE SARB's INFLATION TARGET," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(6), pages 982-1007, September.
    12. Daleen Smal & Coen Pretorius & Nelene Ehlers, 2007. "The core forecasting model of the South African Reserve Bank," Working Papers 3195, South African Reserve Bank.
    13. repec:pri:cepsud:82svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Brian Kahn, 1998. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    15. Janine Aron & Geeta Kingdon, 2007. "South African Economic Policy Under Democracy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 661-667, November.
    16. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 1999. "Reflections on the South African rand crisis of 1996 and its consequences," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and Trade Openness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    20. Lawrence Edwards, 2005. "Has South Africa Liberalised Its Trade?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 754-775, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg & Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Harold Ngalawa & Coretha Komba, 2020. "Inflation, Output and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 398, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    3. Nchake, Mamello A. & Edwards, Lawrence & Rankin, Neil, 2018. "Closer monetary union and product market integration in emerging economies: Evidence from the Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 154-164.
    4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2009. "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2009-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Development Studies; Economics and Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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