IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/12760.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence Edwards
  • Robert Z. Lawrence

Abstract

South African trade policy has exerted a major influence on the composition and aggregate growth of trade. In the Apartheid period, trade protection seriously impeded both exports and imports, and the economy depended on favorable global commodity price trends to avoid running into an external constraint. South Africa developed a comparative advantage in capital-intensive primary and manufactured commodities partly because of its natural resource endowments but also because the pattern of protection was particularly detrimental to exports of non-commodity manufactured goods. High and opaque tariffs seriously impeded export growth. When global commodity markets were weak, in combination with declining gold exports, this seriously constrained aggregate growth and dulled the response of exports to the weaker rand in the late 1980s. On the other hand, surcharges were effective in reducing imports. By contrast, trade liberalization in the 1990s not only increased imports but, by reducing both input costs and the relative profitability of domestic sales, also boosted exports. The growth in non-commodity manufactured sectoral exports as a result of liberalization was actually faster than sectoral imports. This evidence suggests that additional trade liberalization could well be part of the strategy to enhance export diversification. It points to the importance of policies that afford South African firms with access to inputs at world prices as well as a competitive real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 12760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12760
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12760.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Alberto Behar & Lawrence Edwards, 2004. "Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, 2001. "What Does South Africa's Pattern of Trade Say About its Labor Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2001/148, International Monetary Fund.
    5. J.W. Fedderke & E. Schaling, 2005. "Modelling Inflation In South Africa: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 79-92, March.
    6. Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 1997. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1997/132, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Brian Kahn, 1998. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Michael Bleaney, 1999. "Trade reform, macroeconomic performance and export growth in ten Latin American countries, 1979-95," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 89-105.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    10. L Edwards, 2001. "Globalisation And The Skills Bias Of Occupational Employment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 40-71, March.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    13. Kevin Nell, 2000. "Imported Inflation in South Africa: An Empirical Study," Studies in Economics 0005, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    14. Philippe Aghion & Matias Braun & Johannes Fedderke, 2008. "Competition and productivity growth in South Africa," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 741-768, October.
    15. Edwards, Lawrence & Golub, Stephen S., 2004. "South Africa's International Cost Competitiveness and Exports in Manufacturing," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1323-1339, August.
    16. Lawrence Edwards, 2005. "Has South Africa Liberalised Its Trade?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 754-775, December.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    18. Stephen S. Golub & Janet Ceglowski, 2002. "South African Real Exchange Rates And Manufacturing Competitiveness," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(6), pages 1047-1075, September.
    19. Edward K. Y. Chen, 1979. "Export Performance and Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hyper-growth in Asian Economies, chapter 6, pages 109-126, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1998. "Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 89-96.
    21. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    22. Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, September.
    23. WA Naudéa, 2001. "Shipping Costs And South Africa'S Export Potential: An Econometric Analysis1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 123-146, March.
    24. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, June.
    26. W Naudé, 2000. "The Determinants of South African Exports: An Econometric Analysis*(1)," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(2), pages 103-113, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance & Trade Policy," CID Working Papers 135, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Edwards, Lawrence J & Garlick, Robert, 2008. "Trade flows and the exchange rate in South Africa," MPRA Paper 36666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
    4. Silvia Nenci, 2009. "Tariff liberatization and the growth of word trade: A comparative historiocal analysis to evaluate the multilateral trading system," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0110, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    5. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    7. Edwards, Lawrence & Rankin, Neil A. & Schöer, Volker, 2008. "South African exporting firms: What do we know and what should we know?," MPRA Paper 16906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Johannes Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2018. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 197-230, June.
    9. Stéphane Capet & Philippe Gudin de Vallerin, 1993. "Fonctions d'importations et d'exportations : l'apport de la théorie économétrique récente," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 107(1), pages 15-36.
    10. Philip Chimobi Omoke, 2012. "Aggregate Import Demand and Expenditure Components in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(1), pages 149-163, March.
    11. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2010. "Estimating Import And Export Demand Elasticities For Mauritius And South Africa," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 241-252, September.
    12. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Moschos, D. & Stournaras, Y., 1998. "Domestic and foreign price links in an aggregate supply framework: The case of Greece," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 141-157, June.
    14. Khurram Ashfaq Baluch & Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari, 2012. "Price and Income Elasticity of Imports: The Case of Pakistan," Working Papers id:4899, eSocialSciences.
    15. Fukumoto, Mayumi, 2012. "Estimation of China's disaggregate import demand functions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 434-444.
    16. Shingal, Anirudh, 2007. "Examining responsiveness of India’s trade flows to exchange rate movements," MPRA Paper 32820, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2010.
    17. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    18. Guncavdi, Oner & Ulengin, Burc, 2008. "Tradable and Nontradable Expenditure and Aggregate Demand for Import in an Emerging Market Economy," MPRA Paper 9631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. J. Paul Dunne & Lawrence Edwards, 2006. "Trade Technology and Employment: A case Study of South Africa," Working Papers 0602, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    20. Günçavdı, Öner & Ülengin, Burç, 2017. "Tradable and non-tradable expenditure and aggregate demand for imports in an emerging market economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 445-455.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.