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Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model


  • Alberto Behar
  • Lawrence Edwards


Elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports are estimated using a vector error correction model in order to address simultaneity and non-stationarity issues. Demand is highly price-elastic, with elasticities ranging from -3 to -6. The price elasticity of supply is generally about 1, but some estimates are as low as 0.35. Competitors’ prices and world income are important determinants of demand, but domestic capacity utilization is not an important determinant of export supply. Many different data alternatives are sourced, constructed and estimated, showing the results can be sensitive to the choice of series.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Behar & Lawrence Edwards, 2004. "Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2004-04

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave & Véronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2009. "The Impact of the International Economic Crisis in South Africa," Cahiers de recherche 0952, CIRPEE.
    2. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
    3. Mabugu, Ramos & Chitiga, Margaret, 2009. "Is increased agricultural protection beneficial for South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 256-265, January.
    4. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave, 2016. "Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 186-202, March.
    5. Samuel Carrasco & Diego Gianelli & Carolina Godoy, 2015. "Sensibilidad de las Exportaciones al TCR: Un Análisis Sectorial y por Destino," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 745, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Edwards, Lawrence J & Garlick, Robert, 2008. "Trade flows and the exchange rate in South Africa," MPRA Paper 36666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rahul Anand & Roberto Perrelli & Boyang Zhang, 2016. "South Africa’s Exports Performance; Any Role for Structural Factors?," IMF Working Papers 16/24, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Melitón Ramirez Mattos, 2005. "Econometric Model for Cement demand and supply in Bolivia," Econometrics 0508019, EconWPA.
    9. Alberto Behar, 2005. "Does training benefit those who do not get any? Elasticities of complementarity and factor price in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 244, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 12760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.
    12. Chitiga, Margaret & Fofana, Ismael & Mabugu, Ramos, 2011. "A multiregion general equilibrium analysis of fiscal consolidation in South Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1110, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • P - Economic Systems


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