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The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Margaret Chitiga

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Bernard Decaluwe

    () (Department of Economics, Laval University, Quebec, Canada)

  • Ramos Mabugu

    () (Financial and Fiscal Commission)

  • Helene Maisonnave

    () (Financial and Fiscal Commission)

  • Veronique Robichaud

    () (Department of Economics, Laval University, Quebec, Canada)

  • Debra Shepherd

    () (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

  • Servaas van der Berg

    () (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

  • Dieter von Fintel

    () (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)

Abstract

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret Chitiga & Bernard Decaluwe & Ramos Mabugu & Helene Maisonnave & Veronique Robichaud & Debra Shepherd & Servaas van der Berg & Dieter von Fintel, 2010. "The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa," Working Papers 201015, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201015
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Essers, Dennis, 2013. "South African labour market transitions during the global financial and economic crisis: Micro-level evidence from the NIDS panel and matched QLFS cross-sections," IOB Working Papers 2013.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    2. Mabugu, Ramos & Robichaud, Veronique & Maisonnave, Helene & Chitiga, Margaret, 2013. "Impact of fiscal policy in an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 775-782.
    3. Johan Fourie, 2016. "The long walk to economic freedom after apartheid, and the road ahead," Working Papers 11/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECONOMIC CRISIS; COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM; FORECASTING AND SIMULATION; ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEMS; CHILD POVERTY MEASUREMENT; SOUTH AFRICA;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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