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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

Listed author(s):
  • Bacchetta, Philippe
  • Benhima, Kenza
  • Kalantzis, Yannick

In this paper, we consider an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. We study a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, we assume limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. We analyze the optimal exchange rate policy by modelling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Our main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. We also show that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9666.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9666
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  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Javier Bianchi, 2009. "Overborrowing and systemic externalities in the business cycle," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2012. "Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 249-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Productivity Growth of the Nontradable Sectors in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 655-666, November.
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  6. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2013. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 229-262, July.
  7. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, 06.
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  13. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  14. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(3), pages 523-561, August.
  15. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 18431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Song, Zheng Michael & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2009. "Growing like China," CEPR Discussion Papers 7149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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