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Citations for "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread"

by Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon

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  1. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  2. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers e07-15, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Michael T. Kiley, 2012. "The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  6. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Working Paper Series 42_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  7. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  8. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  9. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society.
  10. Laurent Clerc & Françoise Drumetz & François Haas, 2002. "The influence of structural changes on market functioning and its implications for monetary policy: a focus on the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 43-64 Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
  13. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  14. Rodrigo Alfaro & Damián Romero, 2013. "A Note on Yield Spread and Output Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 700, Central Bank of Chile.
  15. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
  16. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2002. "Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  18. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  19. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  20. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  21. Dong Heon Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0528, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  22. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2013. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 2013/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  23. Won-Gi Kim & Noh-Sun Kwark, 2012. "Leading Behavior of Interest Rate Term Spreads and Credit Risk Spreads in Korea," Working Papers 1203, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  24. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  25. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA.
  27. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Paper 2013/20, Norges Bank.
  28. Gogas, Periklis & Chionis, Dionisios & Pragkidis, Ioannis, 2009. "Predicting European Union recessions in the euro era: The yield curve as a forecasting tool of economic activity," MPRA Paper 13911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers e07-19, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  30. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  31. Juan Marcelo, Ochoa, 2006. "An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," MPRA Paper 1072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223.
  33. repec:pra:mprapa:11597 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
  35. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Regime Switching in the Yield Curve," Finance Working Papers 02-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  36. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  37. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
  39. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Malik, Farooq & Nasereddin, Mahdi, 2006. "Forecasting output using oil prices: A cascaded artificial neural network approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 168-180.
  41. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
  42. Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  43. Stângă, Irina M., 2014. "Bank bailouts and bank-sovereign risk contagion channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 17-40.
  44. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 2-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  45. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  46. Damián Romero & Luis Ceballos, 2014. "The Yield Curve Information Under Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 732, Central Bank of Chile.
  47. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  48. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 0890, European Central Bank.
  49. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  50. Edward E. Leamer, 2001. "The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions," NBER Working Papers 8192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
  52. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  53. Zhou, Yinggang, 2014. "Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 216-228.
  54. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
  55. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  56. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  57. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
  59. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  60. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  61. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11.
  62. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
  63. repec:dgr:uvatin:20130142 is not listed on IDEAS
  64. Ralf Becker & Denise Osborn, 2007. "Weighted smooth transition regressions," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0724, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  65. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
  66. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  67. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
  68. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  69. Djuranovik, Leslie, 2014. "The Indonesian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
  70. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  71. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
  72. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 241-270.
  73. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  74. Nakaota, Hiroshi, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Japan: the predictability of economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 311-326, August.
  75. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  76. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
  77. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  78. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, . "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  79. Zaghini, Andrea & Bencivelli, Lorenzo, 2012. "Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation," MPRA Paper 41263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Abdullah Al-Hassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 09/73, International Monetary Fund.
  81. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements, 2007. "Forecasting stock market volatility conditional on macroeconomic conditions," NCER Working Paper Series 18, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  82. Nneji, Ogonna & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2013. "House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 172-178.
  83. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.