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Citations for "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations"

by Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams

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  1. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 361-395.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2010-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  3. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targeting: a Framework for Communication," Working Papers 71, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  4. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2011. "First Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics," Working Papers 572, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
  6. Hubert, Paul & Maule, Becky, 2016. "Policy and macro signals as inputs to inflation expectation formation," Bank of England working papers 581, Bank of England.
  7. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 200717, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  9. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Kosuke Aoki & Takeshi Kimura, 2008. "Central Bank's Two-Way Communication with the Public and Inflation Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0899, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
  12. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
  13. Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012. "Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
  14. Larch, Martin & Jonung, Lars & Fischer, Jonas, 2008. "101 proposals to reform the Stability and Growth Pact. Why so many? A survey," MPRA Paper 20592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. David E. Lindsey & Athanasios Orphanides & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "The reform of October 1979: how it happened and why," Working Papers 2004-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  16. Lewis Vivien & Markiewicz Agnieszka, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
  17. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Kaushik, Mitra, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence hold when expectations are not rational?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland.
  18. Cole, Stephen, 2015. "Learning and the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance," MPRA Paper 65207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  20. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
  21. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Research 70, National Bank of Belgium.
  22. Taiji Harashima, 2005. "The Cause of the Great Inflation: Interactions between the Government and the Monetary Policymakers," Macroeconomics 0510026, EconWPA, revised 31 Oct 2005.
  23. Ábel, István & Siklos, Pierre L., 2007. "Mindentől függetlenül. A monetáris politika hatása a gazdasági ciklusra Magyarországon
    [Irrespective of everything. The effect of monetary policy on the economic cycle]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 945-959.
  24. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2015. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  25. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo Group Munich.
  26. Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through," Working Papers 2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  27. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
  28. Thistle, John G. & Miller, Daniel E., 2016. "No free lunch: Fundamental tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-121.
  29. WilliamA. Branch & John Carlson & GeorgeW. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention and the Volatility Trade-off," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 123-157, 01.
  30. Carlos Hamilton Araujo & Seppo Honkapohja & James B. Bullard, 2009. "Panel discussion," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 383-395.
  31. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Athanasios Orphanides, 2010. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," Working Papers 2010-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  33. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
  34. Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2012. "Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information," Economics Working Papers 1338, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  35. Cole, Stephen, 2016. "The limits of central bank forward guidance under learning," MPRA Paper 70862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Kosuke Aoki & Takeshi Kimura, 2007. "Uncertainty about Perceived Inflation Target and Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-16, Bank of Japan.
  37. Kim, Young Se, 2009. "Exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 843-863, April.
  38. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2014-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  39. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Inflation targeting under commitment and discretion," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-13.
  40. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2015. "Empirical Calibration of Adaptive Learning," KOF Working papers 15-392, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  41. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2010. "Heterogeneity, Learning and Information Stickiness in Inflation Expectations," Post-Print hal-00849412, HAL.
  42. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006.
  43. Smith, Gregor W., 2009. "Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1858-1866, November.
  44. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
  45. Bodo Herzog, 2015. "Anchoring of expectations: The role of credible targets in a game experiment," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1-15, December.
  46. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2011. "Optimal disinflation in new Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 248-261.
  47. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Working Papers 02, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  48. Weise, Charles L, 2008. "Political constraints on monetary policy during the Great Inflation," MPRA Paper 8694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Athanasios Orphanides amd John Williams, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 254, Society for Computational Economics.
  50. Antipin, Jan-Erik & Boumediene, Farid Jimmy & Österholm, Pär, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares," Working Papers 126, National Institute of Economic Research.
  51. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
  52. Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Monetary policy and aggregate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages S1-S18.
  53. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  54. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 7597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  56. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  57. Krisztina Molnar & Sergio Santoro, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Agents are Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 40, Society for Computational Economics.
  58. Brian Hayes, 2011. "Economics, Control Theory, and the Phillips Machine," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1101, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  59. Arturo Ormeno, 2009. "Disciplining expectations: adding survey expectations in learning models," 2009 Meeting Papers 1140, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  60. Edward Nelson, 2004. "The Great Inflation of the seventies: what really happened?," Working Papers 2004-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  61. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the initialization of adaptive learning algorithms: A review of methods and a new smoothing-based routine," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 175, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  62. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  63. Maria Demertzis & Marco Hoeberichts, 2007. "The Costs of Increasing Transparency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 263-280, July.
  64. Heemeijer Peter & Hommes Cars & Sonnemans Joep & Tuinstra Jan, 2012. "An Experimental Study on Expectations and Learning in Overlapping Generations Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-49, October.
  65. Weise, Charles L., 2009. "Political Constraints on Monetary Policy During the U.S. Great Inflation," MPRA Paper 18700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2012. "Introduction to "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking"," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 1-22 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2006. "Edmund Phelps's Contributions to Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2006-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  69. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  70. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  71. Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, 02.
  72. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
  73. Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz & Andreas Worms, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 60, Society for Computational Economics.
  74. Henzel, Steffen R., 2013. "Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-185.
  75. Knotek, Edward S. & Khan, Shujaat, 2014. "Drifting Inflation Targets and Monetary Stagflation," Working Paper 1426, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 18 Nov 2014.
  76. Chevillon, Guillaume & Massmann, Michael & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2010. "Inference in models with adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 341-351, April.
  77. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
  78. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  79. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  80. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the plausibility of adaptive learning in macroeconomics: A puzzling conflict in the choice of the representative algorithm," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 177, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  81. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  82. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo Group Munich.
  83. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
  84. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.