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Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping

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  • Jihye Jeon

Abstract

This article investigates the role of demand uncertainty in explaining cyclical investment fluctuations in the container shipping industry. I develop and estimate a dynamic oligopoly model with learning in which firms choose investment and scrapping. In this model, firms are uncertain about the true parameters in the underlying process for demand, and form and revise their beliefs using available information. Counterfactual analysis reveals that uncertainty about the demand process amplifies investment cycles through (i) leading firms to revise beliefs more drastically as they experience demand fluctuations, and (ii) intensifying strategic incentives among firms.

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  • Jihye Jeon, 2022. "Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(1), pages 226-259, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:randje:v:53:y:2022:i:1:p:226-259
    DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12406
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    Cited by:

    1. Takuma Matsuda & Suguru Otani, 2022. "Unified Container Shipping Industry Data From 1966: Freight Rate, Shipping Quantity, Newbuilding, Secondhand, and Scrap Price," Papers 2211.16292, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    2. Sears, Louis S. & Lawell, C.Y. Cynthia Lin & Torres, Gerald & Walter, M. Todd, 2022. "Moment-based Markov Equilibrium Estimation of High-Dimension Dynamic Games: An Application to Groundwater Management in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322187, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Suguru Otani, 2024. "Industry Dynamics with Cartels: The Case of the Container Shipping Industry," Papers 2407.15147, arXiv.org.
    4. Suguru Otani, 2024. "Industry Dynamics with Cartels: The Case of the Container Shipping Industry," Discussion Paper Series DP2024-28, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. Xinlong Li & Andrew T. Ching, 2024. "How Does a Firm Adapt in a Changing World? The Case of Prosper Marketplace," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 673-693, May.
    6. Suguru Otani & Takuma Matsuda, 2023. "Unified Merger List in the Container Shipping Industry from 1966 to 2022: A Structural Estimation of M&A Matching," Papers 2310.09938, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    7. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Dong, Kangyin & Wan, Yulai & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Does the shipping alliance aggravate or alleviate container shipping market volatility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

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