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Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market

Author

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  • Ulrich Doraszelski
  • Gregory Lewis
  • Ariel Pakes

Abstract

We document the evolution of the new market for frequency response within the UK electricity system over a six-year period. Firms competed in price while facing considerable initial uncertainty about demand and rival behavior. We show that prices stabilized over time, converging to a rest point that is consistent with equilibrium play. We draw on models of fictitious play and adaptive learning to analyze how this convergence occurs and show that these models predict behavior better than an equilibrium model prior to convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Doraszelski & Gregory Lewis & Ariel Pakes, 2018. "Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 565-615, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:3:p:565-615
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    2. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Market Power In The England And Wales Wholesale Electricity Market 1995-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 654-685, April.
    3. Mirman, Leonard J & Samuelson, Larry & Urbano, Amparo, 1993. "Duopoly Signal Jamming," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(1), pages 129-149, January.
    4. Timothy C. Salmon, 2001. "An Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1597-1628, November.
    5. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
    6. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    8. Lee, Robin S. & Pakes, Ariel, 2009. "Multiple equilibria and selection by learning in an applied setting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 13-16, July.
    9. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-685, September.
    10. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "A two-armed bandit theory of market pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-202, October.
    11. Camerer, Colin F. & Ho, Teck-Hua & Chong, Juin-Kuan, 2002. "Sophisticated Experience-Weighted Attraction Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 137-188, May.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Economic Analysis of Price Premiums in the Presence of Non-convexities - Evidence from German Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2017-12, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Kopányi, Dávid, 2017. "The coexistence of stable equilibria under least squares learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 277-300.
    3. repec:eee:indorg:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:241-266 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pakes, Ariel, 2017. "Empirical tools and competition analysis: Past progress and current problems," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 241-266.
    5. Erhao Xie, 2018. "Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants, Competition in Opening Hours," Staff Working Papers 18-60, Bank of Canada.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2018. "Firms' Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers tecipa-620, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

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