IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v108y2018i3p565-615.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Doraszelski
  • Gregory Lewis
  • Ariel Pakes

Abstract

We document the evolution of the new market for frequency response within the UK electricity system over a six-year period. Firms competed in price while facing considerable initial uncertainty about demand and rival behavior. We show that prices stabilized over time, converging to a rest point that is consistent with equilibrium play. We draw on models of fictitious play and adaptive learning to analyze how this convergence occurs and show that these models predict behavior better than an equilibrium model prior to convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Doraszelski & Gregory Lewis & Ariel Pakes, 2018. "Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 565-615, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:3:p:565-615
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160177
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20160177
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=9E3uwlCgEN6wg4cX6_OCCvv-dx3dYiyP
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=q9sIVZ1LbpF-jGYnLjDvNYfdCgLtKrWi
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    2. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Market Power In The England And Wales Wholesale Electricity Market 1995-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 654-685, April.
    3. Mirman, Leonard J & Samuelson, Larry & Urbano, Amparo, 1993. "Duopoly Signal Jamming," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(1), pages 129-149, January.
    4. Timothy C. Salmon, 2001. "An Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1597-1628, November.
    5. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
    6. Venky Venkateswaran & Laura Veldkamp & Julian Kozlowski, 2015. "The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation," 2015 Meeting Papers 800, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2013. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading To Correlated Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Simple Adaptive Strategies From Regret-Matching to Uncoupled Dynamics, chapter 2, pages 17-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Lee, Robin S. & Pakes, Ariel, 2009. "Multiple equilibria and selection by learning in an applied setting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 13-16, July.
    9. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-685, September.
    10. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "A two-armed bandit theory of market pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-202, October.
    11. Camerer, Colin F. & Ho, Teck-Hua & Chong, Juin-Kuan, 2002. "Sophisticated Experience-Weighted Attraction Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 137-188, May.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xinyuan Liu & Zaiyan Wei & Mo Xiao, 2020. "Platform Mispricing and Lender Learning in Peer-to-Peer Lending," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 281-314, March.
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2021. "Identification of firms’ beliefs in structural models of market competition," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 5-33, February.
    3. Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Economic Analysis of Price Premiums in the Presence of Non-convexities - Evidence from German Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2017-12, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    4. Kopányi, Dávid, 2017. "The coexistence of stable equilibria under least squares learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 277-300.
    5. Chernomaz Kirill & Yoshimoto Hisayuki, 2020. "How Accurately Do Structural Asymmetric First-Price Auction Estimates Represent True Valuations?," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Mohlin, Erik & Östling, Robert & Wang, Joseph Tao-yi, 2020. "Learning by similarity-weighted imitation in winner-takes-all games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 225-245.
    7. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2020. "Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 203-235, March.
    8. Alexandra Belova & Philippe Gagnepain & Stéphane Gauthier, 2020. "An assessment of Nash equilibria in the airline industry," Working Papers halshs-02932780, HAL.
    9. Pakes, Ariel, 2017. "Empirical tools and competition analysis: Past progress and current problems," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 241-266.
    10. Chernov, G. & Susin, I., 2019. "Models of learning in games: An overview," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 77-125.
    11. Tabari, Mokhtar & Shaffer, Blake, 2020. "Paying for performance: The role of policy in energy storage deployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Aguirregabiria Victor & Xie Erhao, 2021. "Identification of Non-Equilibrium Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, January.
    13. Erhao Xie, 2018. "Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants, Competition in Opening Hours," Staff Working Papers 18-60, Bank of Canada.
    14. Jonathan Newton, 2018. "Evolutionary Game Theory: A Renaissance," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-67, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erhao Xie, 2019. "Monetary Payoff and Utility Function in Adaptive Learning Models," Staff Working Papers 19-50, Bank of Canada.
    2. Chernov, G. & Susin, I., 2019. "Models of learning in games: An overview," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 77-125.
    3. Ron Borkovsky & Paul Ellickson & Brett Gordon & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Gardete & Paul Grieco & Todd Gureckis & Teck-Hua Ho & Laurent Mathevet & Andrew Sweeting, 2015. "Multiplicity of equilibria and information structures in empirical games: challenges and prospects," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 115-125, June.
    4. Shachat, Jason & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2012. "Learning about learning in games through experimental control of strategic interdependence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 383-402.
    5. Bogliacino, Francesco & Codagnone, Cristiano, 2021. "Microfoundations, behaviour, and evolution: Evidence from experiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 372-385.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jihye Jeon, 2020. "Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models, Identification, and Empirical Evidence," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 56(2), pages 203-235, March.
    7. Rutström, E. Elisabet & Wilcox, Nathaniel T., 2009. "Stated beliefs versus inferred beliefs: A methodological inquiry and experimental test," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 616-632, November.
    8. Nathaniel T Wilcox, 2003. "Heterogeneity and Learning Principles," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000435, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Jordi Brandts & David J. Cooper, 2006. "A Change Would Do You Good .... An Experimental Study on How to Overcome Coordination Failure in Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 669-693, June.
    10. Josephson, Jens, 2008. "A numerical analysis of the evolutionary stability of learning rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1569-1599, May.
    11. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Todd Guilfoos & Andreas Duus Pape, 2020. "Estimating Case-Based Learning," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
    13. Francesco Fallucchi & Jan Niederreiter & Massimo Riccaboni, 2021. "Learning and dropout in contests: an experimental approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(2), pages 245-278, March.
    14. Terracol, Antoine & Vaksmann, Jonathan, 2009. "Dumbing down rational players: Learning and teaching in an experimental game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 54-71, May.
    15. Asim Ansari & Ricardo Montoya & Oded Netzer, 2012. "Dynamic learning in behavioral games: A hidden Markov mixture of experts approach," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 475-503, December.
    16. Benaïm, Michel & Hofbauer, Josef & Hopkins, Ed, 2009. "Learning in games with unstable equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1694-1709, July.
    17. repec:hrv:faseco:33444603 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Arthur Charpentier & Romuald Elie & Carl Remlinger, 2020. "Reinforcement Learning in Economics and Finance," Papers 2003.10014, arXiv.org.
    19. Daniele Tavani & Luke Petach, 0. "Firm beliefs and long-run demand effects in a labor-constrained model of growth and distribution," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-25.
    20. Colin Camerer & Teck Ho & Kuan Chong, 2003. "Models of Thinking, Learning, and Teaching in Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 192-195, May.
    21. Bigoni, Maria & Fort, Margherita, 2013. "Information and learning in oligopoly: An experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 192-214.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market (AER 2018) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:3:p:565-615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.