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Citations for "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy"

by Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow & Frederico Finan

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  1. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
  3. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 255-278, August.
  4. James Yetman, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Potential Output Uncertainty, and Optimal Learning," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Tetlow, Robert J. & Ironside, Brian, 2006. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," Working Paper Series 0610, European Central Bank.
  6. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6401, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2004. "The difficulty of discerning what's too tight: Taylor rules and Japanese monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-74, March.
  8. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
  10. Pelin Ilbas, 2007. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Working Paper 2008/21, Norges Bank, revised 12 Dec 2008.
  11. Kienzler, Daniel & Schmid, Kai D., 2013. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Working Papers on Finance 1328, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  12. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  13. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Yasuo Hirose & Saori Naganuma, 2007. "Structural Estimation of the Output Gap: A Bayesian DSGE Approach for the U.S. Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-24, Bank of Japan.
  15. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields & Zheng Wang, 2012. "Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 495-516, December.
  17. Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  18. Kevin Salyer & Kristin Van Gaasback, 2003. "A New Application of Taylor Rules: Model Evaluation," Working Papers 013, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  19. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
  20. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo & Villarreal, Francisco, 2008. "A modified Taylor rule for dealing with demand shocks and uncertain potential macroeconomic output," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1283-1300.
  21. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and robust rules for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2010-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  22. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Paper Series 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  23. Virmani, Vineet, "undated". "Operationalising Taylor-type Rules for the Indian Economy: Issues and Some Results (1992Q3 2001Q4)," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-07-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  24. Laban K. Chesang & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2014. "Parameter Uncertainty and Inflation Dynamics in a Model with Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Working Papers 201437, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  25. Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, 2011. "The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1132, The University of Melbourne.
  26. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Ioannidis, Christos, 2005. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price misalignments?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
  28. William Baeza L. & Pablo García., 2003. "Medidas Alternativas de Brechas en Modelos de Inflación," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(2), pages 77-94, August.
  29. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
  30. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
  31. John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
  32. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in an Uncertain World: Lessons for European Policymakers," Trinity Economics Papers 200213, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  33. Beck, Günter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2007. "Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: the Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-style cross-checking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  34. Michael Scharnagl & Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz, 2010. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-441, Winter.
  35. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Bjarni G. Einarsson & Magnús F. Guðmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Signý Sigmundardóttir & Jósef Sigurðarson & Rósa Sveinsdóttir, 2015. "QMM - A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp71, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  36. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 699, OECD Publishing.
  37. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Siegler, Mark V. & Van Gaasbeck, Kristin A., 2005. "From the Great Depression to the Great Inflation: Path dependence and monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 375-387.
  39. Kienzler, Daniel & Schmid, Kai Daniel, 2013. "Monetary policy and hysteresis in potential output," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 55, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  40. Xiangrong Yu, 2013. "Measurement Error and Policy Evaluation in the Frequency Domain," Working Papers 172013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  41. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2015. "Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 71-109, May.
  42. Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
  43. Haelim M. Park & Gary Richardson, 2010. "Retail Trade by Federal Reserve District, 1919 to 1939: A Statistical History," NBER Working Papers 16617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Wieland, Volker & Beck, Günter W., 2010. "Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 1191, European Central Bank.
  45. John M. Roberts, 2004. "Monetary policy and inflation dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  47. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  49. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2006. "Robustifying Learnability," 2006 Meeting Papers 439, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  50. Shaun P. Vahey & Andreas Pick & Don M. Egginton, 2001. ""Keep it real!": A real-time UK macro data set," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(18), pages A0-.
  51. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-75, April.
  52. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
  53. Shea, Paul, 2008. "Real-time rational expectations and indeterminacy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 530-533, June.
  54. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2001. "UK Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: The Role of Output Gap Mismeasurement," CEPR Discussion Papers 2999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2000. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  56. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  57. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 73-98, 02.
  58. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-38.
  59. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
  60. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin L Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 00/158, International Monetary Fund.
  61. Coenen, Günter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  62. Ralf Fendel, 2004. "Perspektiven und Grenzen der Verwendung geldpolitischer Regeln," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(2), pages 169-192, 05.
  63. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Carboni, Giacomo & Ellison, Martin, 2011. "Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 40-51, January.
  65. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  66. Kjetil Olsen & Jan Fredrik & Oistain Roisland, 2003. "Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 368-382 Bank for International Settlements.
  67. Ippei Fujiwara, Naoko Hara, Naohisa Hirakata, Takeshi Kimura, and Shinichiro Watanabe, 2007. "Japanese Monetary Policy during the Collapse of the Bubble Economy: A View of Policymaking under Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 89-128, November.
  68. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Switzerland; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 01/75, International Monetary Fund.
  69. Robert J. Tetlow, 2015. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: "Robust" Policies Put to the Test," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 113-155, March.
  70. Mehra, Yash P., 2002. "Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 575-594.
  71. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
  72. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 492, Central Bank of Chile.
  73. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
  74. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 499, Central Bank of Chile.
  75. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  76. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  77. Niklas J. Westelius, 2006. "Imperfect Transparency and Shifts in the Central Bank's Output Gap Target," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 415, Hunter College Department of Economics, revised 2008.
  78. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
  79. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  80. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2005. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 46, Society for Computational Economics.
  81. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
  82. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics.
  83. Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Working Paper Series 2000-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  84. Jarkko Jääskelä & Tony Yates, 2005. "Monetary policy and data uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 281, Bank of England.
  85. Feng Zhu, 2016. "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 63-149 Bank for International Settlements.
  86. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  87. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, . "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
  88. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133.
  89. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  90. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
  91. Bohdan Kłos, 2003. "Rules of Percentage Rate in Conditions of Uncertainty," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 9.
  92. Kevin Lee & Anthony Garratt & Kalvinder Shields, 2009. "Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One?," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/22, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  93. Scharnagl, Michael & Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Simple interest rate rules with a role for money," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  94. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  95. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2009. "Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth," Working Papers 2009-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  96. Chesang, Laban K. & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2016. "Parameter uncertainty and inflation dynamics in a model with asymmetric central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-10.
  97. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
  98. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  99. Hideo Hayakawa & Hiroshi Ugai, 2001. "Why did prices in Japan hardly decline during the 1997-98 recession?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 139-173 Bank for International Settlements.
  100. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Inspecting the noisy mechanism: the stochastic growth model with partial information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 207, Society for Computational Economics.
  101. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  102. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 0265, European Central Bank.
  103. Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 470.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
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