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Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth

  • William T. Gavin
  • Benjamin D. Keen
  • Michael R. Pakko

This paper examines the impact of a permanent shock to the productivity growth rate in a New Keynesian model when the central bank does not immediately adjust its policy rule to that shock. Our results show that inflation and productivity growth are negatively correlated at business cycle frequencies when the central bank follows a Taylor-type policy rule that targets the output gap. We then demonstrate that inflation is more stable after a permanent productivity shock when monetary policy targets the output growth rate (not the output gap) or the price-level path (not the inflation rate). As for the welfare implications, both the output growth and price-level path rules generate much less volatility in output and inflation after a productivity shock than occurs with the Taylor rule.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-049.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2009-049.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-049
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  1. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 2004. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," Working Paper Series WP-04-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. David E. Lebow & John M. Roberts & David J. Stockton, 1992. "Economic performance under price stability," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 609, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
  8. Michael R. Pakko, 2002. "What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes?: Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the 'New Economy'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 376-407, April.
  9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  10. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  13. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Vítor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2007. "Is Time Ripe for Price Level Path Stability?," Working Papers w200719, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  16. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 392-406, July.
  17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
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