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Citations for "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy"

by Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico

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  1. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  2. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kevin Lee & Anthony Garratt & Kalvinder Shields, 2009. "Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One?," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/22, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  4. Beck, Günter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2006. "Money in monetary policy design under uncertainty: The two-pillar Phillips curve versus ECB-style cross-checking," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0059, European Central Bank.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
  8. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2003. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  9. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2004. "Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation," DFAEII Working Papers 2004-02, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  12. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2009. "Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth," Working Papers 2009-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0014, European Central Bank.
  16. Egginton, Donald & Andreas Pick & Shaun P. Vahey, 2002. "Keep It Real!: A Real-time UK Macro Data Set," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 69, Royal Economic Society.
  17. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
  18. Siegler, Mark V. & Van Gaasbeck, Kristin A., 2005. "From the Great Depression to the Great Inflation: Path dependence and monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 375-387.
  19. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
  20. Robert J. Tetlow, 2015. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: "Robust" Policies Put to the Test," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 113-155, March.
  21. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Takeshi Kimura & Shinichiro Watanabe, 2007. "Japanese Monetary Policy during the Collapse of the Bubble Economy: A View of Policy-making under Uncertainty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  22. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  23. Yasuo Hirose & Saori Naganuma, 2007. "Structural Estimation of the Output Gap: A Bayesian DSGE Approach for the U.S. Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-24, Bank of Japan.
  24. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
  25. Hideo Hayakawa & Hiroshi Ugai, 2001. "Why did prices in Japan hardly decline during the 1997-98 recession?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 139-173 Bank for International Settlements.
  26. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  27. John C. Williams, 2004. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Working Paper Series 2004-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  28. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2001. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England.
  29. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  30. Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, 2011. "The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1132, The University of Melbourne.
  31. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2009. "Robustifying learnability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 296-316, February.
  32. Kjetil Olsen & Jan Fredrik & Oistain Roisland, 2003. "Monetary policy in real time: the role of simple rules," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 368-382 Bank for International Settlements.
  33. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. David L. Reifschneider & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2013. "Aggregate supply in the United States: recent developments and implications for the conduct of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
  36. Bohdan Kłos, 2003. "Rules of Percentage Rate in Conditions of Uncertainty," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 9.
  37. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  38. Kienzler, Daniel & Schmid, Kai Daniel, 2013. "Monetary policy and hysteresis in potential output," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 55, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  39. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  40. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2013. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Working Papers 201310, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  41. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
  42. Pelin Ilbas, 2012. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 440-473, 04.
  43. Giacomo Carboni & Martin Ellison, 2010. "Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information," Post-Print hal-00753043, HAL.
  44. Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 470.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  45. Coenen, Guenter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  46. Michael Scharnagl & Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz, 2010. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-441, Winter.
  47. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 73-98, 02.
  48. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
  49. Shea, Paul, 2008. "Real-time rational expectations and indeterminacy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 530-533, June.
  50. Daniel Kienzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 371-396, 09.
  51. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  52. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  53. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
  54. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields & Zheng Wang, 2012. "Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 495-516, December.
  55. Scharnagl, Michael & Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Simple interest rate rules with a role for money," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  56. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2004-22, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  57. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  58. Beck, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo & Villarreal, Francisco, 2008. "A modified Taylor rule for dealing with demand shocks and uncertain potential macroeconomic output," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1283-1300.
  60. Kevin D. Salyer & Kristin Van Gaasback, . "A New Application of Taylor Rules: Model Evaluation," Department of Economics 00-13, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  61. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2006. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  62. Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
  63. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted to Asset Price Movements? Evidence from the UK," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 7(1), pages 18-33, Summer.
  64. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
  65. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 524-533, 04-05.
  66. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 00/158, International Monetary Fund.
  67. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
  68. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, . "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
  69. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  70. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  72. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  73. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
  74. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  75. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  76. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2003. "The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series WP03-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  77. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  78. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Paper Series 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  79. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
  80. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  81. Xiangrong Yu, 2013. "Measurement Error and Policy Evaluation in the Frequency Domain," Working Papers 172013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  82. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  83. Mehra, Yash P., 2002. "Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 575-594.
  84. William Baeza L. & Pablo García., 2003. "Medidas Alternativas de Brechas en Modelos de Inflación," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(2), pages 77-94, August.
  85. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
  86. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Inspecting the noisy mechanism: the stochastic growth model with partial information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 207, Society for Computational Economics.
  87. Lane, P.R., 2002. "Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in an Uncertain World: Lessons for European Policymakers," CEG Working Papers 20027, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  88. Laban K. Chesang & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2014. "Parameter Uncertainty and Inflation Dynamics in a Model with Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Working Papers 201437, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  89. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  90. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133.
  91. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-38.
  92. James Yetman, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Potential Output Uncertainty, and Optimal Learning," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  93. Jarkko Jääskelä & Tony Yates, 2005. "Monetary policy and data uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 281, Bank of England.
  94. Haelim M. Park & Gary Richardson, 2010. "Retail Trade by Federal Reserve District, 1919 to 1939: A Statistical History," NBER Working Papers 16617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Ralf Fendel, 2004. "Perspektiven und Grenzen der Verwendung geldpolitischer Regeln," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(2), pages 169-192, 05.
  96. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 0265, European Central Bank.
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