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Interest rate risk and other determinants of post WWII U.S. government debt/GDP dynamics

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith & Ding Liu, 2024. "Central Bank Independence, Government Debt and the Re-Normalization of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2024_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Das, Piyali & Ghate, Chetan, 2022. "Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  3. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
  4. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
  5. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Perceptions and Misperceptions of Fiscal Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 255-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Berndt, Antje & Yeltekin, Şevin, 2015. "Monetary policy, bond returns and debt dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-136.
  7. Jorge Carrera & Pablo de la Vega & Fernando Toledo, 2024. "Income inequality and fiscal policy over the political cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 301-325, January.
  8. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
  9. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(4), pages 1309-1347, July.
  10. Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2021. "Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 600-617.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
  12. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
  13. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," Working Paper Series WP 2020-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
  15. John Cochrane, 2022. "The fiscal root of inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 22-40, July.
  16. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2015. "A History of U.S. Debt Limits," NBER Working Papers 21799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Liu, Yang, 2023. "Government debt and risk premia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 18-34.
  18. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  19. DAS, PIYALI & Ghate, Chetan, 2020. "Public Debt in India: A Security Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 103746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2023. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(6), pages 3561-3620, December.
  21. Osti, Davide, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Evidence from Southern European Regions," MPRA Paper 79892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  23. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
  24. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2017. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 12304, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  25. J.W. Mason & Arjun Jayadev, 2015. "Lost in Fiscal Space: Some Simple Analytics of Macroeconomic Policy in the Spirit of Tinbergen, Wicksell and Lerner," Working Papers 2015_05, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
  26. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
  27. Tóth G., Csaba, 2014. "The Forecasting Capacity of Indicators Measuring Budget Sustainability," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 59(4), pages 511-528.
  28. Andreas Fagereng & Magnus A. H. Gulbrandsen & Martin B. Holm & Gisle J. Natvik, 2021. "How does monetary policy affect household indebtedness?," Working Paper 2021/5, Norges Bank.
  29. Ricardo Reis, 2017. "Comment on "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 246-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Bernardin Akitoby & Ariel Binder & Takuji Komatsuzaki, 2017. "Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(7), pages 5-27, May.
  31. Ichiro Fukunaga & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Inflation and public debt reversals in advanced economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 124-137, January.
  32. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Gernot J. Müller & Alexander Scheer, 2024. "Financial Repression in General Equilibrium: The Case of the United States, 1948–1974," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2075, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  33. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
  34. Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
  35. Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign debt management and fiscal vulnerabilities," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 157-176, Bank for International Settlements.
  36. Ampofo, Gideon Minua Kwaku & Jinhua, Cheng & Bosah, Philip Chukwunonso & Ayimadu, Edwin Twum & Senadzo, Patrick, 2021. "Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt in resource-rich countries:A panel data analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  37. Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
  38. Ernest Dautovic, 2018. "The weight of the median voter ageing on public debt," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 69-92, March.
  39. Timothy J. Kehoe & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Thomas Sargent, 2022. "A Framework for Studying the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America," Book Chapters, in: Timothy J. Kehoe & Juan Pablo Nicolini (ed.), A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017, pages 19-42, University of Minnesota Press.
  40. Carrera, Jorge & de la Vega, Pablo, 2021. "The impact of income inequality on public debt," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
  41. Kirsi Zongo & Marcellin Ndong Ntah & Jean Marie Gankou, 2019. "Determinants of external debt in Mauritania [Déterminants de la dette extérieure en Mauritanie]," Post-Print hal-03577999, HAL.
  42. Ferraro, Domenico & Peretto, Pietro F., 2020. "Innovation-led growth in a time of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  43. Scheer, Alexander, 2015. "Debt consolidation with long-term debt," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112874, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  44. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
  45. Enno Schröder, 2015. "Eurozone Imbalances: Measuring the Contribution of Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Volumes 1990-2013," Working Papers 1508, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
  46. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
  47. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
  48. Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  49. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
  50. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2014. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-218.
  51. Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo & Claudia Udroiu, 2024. "Fiscal stimuli: Monetary versus Fiscal Financing," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS105, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
  52. Atanas Pekanov, 2018. "The New View on Fiscal Policy and its Implications for the European Monetary Union," WIFO Working Papers 562, WIFO.
  53. Pratibha, S. & Sharma, Vishal & Krishna, M., 2024. "Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  54. Miklós Losoncz & Csaba G. Tóth, 2020. "Government Debt Reduction in the Old EU Member States: Is This Time Different?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 28-54.
  55. Marcelo Bianconi & Walter H. Fisher, 2014. "Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 116-130, February.
  56. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
  57. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
  58. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  59. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理 [Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth and Public Debt and Policy Governance]," MPRA Paper 72783, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2025. "Fiscal Consequences of the US War on COVID," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1753-1780, December.
  61. YiLi Chien & Wenxin Du & Hanno Lustig, 2025. "Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money," Working Papers 2025-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  62. Equiza-Goñi, Juan, 2016. "Government debt maturity and debt dynamics in euro area countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 292-311.
  63. Ferre De Graeve & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Forward Guidance, Quantitative Easing, or both?," Working Paper Research 305, National Bank of Belgium.
  64. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2024. "The Rest of the World’s Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(4), pages 1320-1346, December.
  65. Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy Z., 2026. "Manufacturing risk-free government debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
  66. Christophe Schalck, 2019. "Investigating shifts in public debt management behaviour in France," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1656-1665.
  67. José Alves & Clarisse Wagner, 2024. "Leveraging interest-growth differentials: Hidden effects of government financial assets in the European Union," Working Papers REM 2024/0307, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
  68. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan & de Vette, Nander, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g," CEPR Discussion Papers 15478, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  69. Anastasios G Karantounias, 2018. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Recursive Preferences," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2283-2317.
  70. Wei Dong & Geoffrey Dunbar & Christian Friedrich & Dmitry Matveev & Romanos Priftis & Lin Shao, 2021. "Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review," Discussion Papers 2021-4, Bank of Canada.
  71. Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy Z., 2019. "The Government Risk Premium Puzzle," Research Papers 3831, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  72. Joshua Mason and Arjun Jayadev, "undated". "Fisher Dynamics in Household Debt: The Case of the U.S. 1929-2011," Working Papers 13, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
  73. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt in the U.S. and Growth Expectations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-25, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  74. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  75. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections," NBER Working Papers 27115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Michele Andreolli & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 701-772, June.
  77. Ilhèm Gargouri & Majdi Ksantini, 2016. "The Determinants Of Public Debt," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 111-124, March.
  78. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  79. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  80. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
  81. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," CAMA Working Papers 2024-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  82. Reda, Cherif & Fuad, Hasanov, 2010. "Public Debt Dynamics and Debt Feedback," MPRA Paper 27918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Michalis Nikiforos, 2020. "Crisis, Austerity, and Fiscal Expenditure in Greece: Recent Experience and Future Prospects in the Post-COVID-19 Era," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_151, Levy Economics Institute.
  84. Patel, Nikhil & Peralta-Alva, Adrian, 2025. "High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  85. Kenta Inoue, 2014. "Is Correlation Puzzle Really Puzzling? Reassessing Motives Of Foreign Asset Holdings By Us Investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 160-172, March.
  86. Equiza-Goñi, Juan, 2023. "Euro area inflation linked debt: An evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
  87. Chang, Yoosoon & Gómez-Rodríguez, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2026. "The influence of fiscal and monetary policies on the shape of the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  88. Maria‐Eleni K. Agoraki & Stella Kardara & Tryphon Kollintzas & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2023. "Debt‐to‐GDP changes and the great recession: European Periphery versus European Core," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3299-3331, July.
  89. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  90. Sutherland, Douglas, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation Needs and Implications for Growth," MPRA Paper 38745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  91. De Graeve, Ferre & Mazzolini, Giulio, 2023. "The maturity composition of government debt: A comprehensive database," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  92. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Maturity and Debt-to GDP Dynamics in Six Euro Area Countries," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-44, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  93. Renee Courtois Haltom & John A. Weinberg, 2015. "Unsustainable Fiscal Policy: Implications for Monetary Policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 151-167.
  94. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
  95. Ricardo Ferraz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento & António Portugal Duarte, 2024. "The Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Democracy, 1974–2020," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 749-772, September.
  96. Das, Piyali, 2021. "Fiscal financing components in a simple model of policy interaction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 257-276.
  97. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Stan Olijslagers & Nander de Vette, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g smaller than 0: no free lunch after all," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-079/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  98. Danny Yagan, 2024. "The Growth Dividend and Excess Interest," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  99. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 164-192, February.
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