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Financial repression in general equilibrium: The case of the United States, 1948-1974

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  • Kliem, Martin
  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander
  • Müller, Gernot J.
  • Scheer, Alexander

Abstract

Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948-1974, we find, consistent with earlier work, that repression was pervasive but gradually phased out. A model-based counterfactual shows that GDP would have been 5 percent lower, and the debt-to-GDP ratio 20 percentage points higher, had repression not been phased out.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Scheer, Alexander, 2024. "Financial repression in general equilibrium: The case of the United States, 1948-1974," Discussion Papers 20/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:299242
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    1. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial repression; Government debt; Interest rates; Banks; Regulation; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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