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Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Picone

    (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

  • Arseniy Yashkin

    (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

  • Thomas Mroz
  • Frank Sloan

Abstract

This study develops a discrete multiple state duration model for screen- ing a chronic disease that allows for duration dependence, unmeasured heterogeneity, partial observability of the state and endogenous treat- ment. We study whether screening for diabetes is e¤ective in delaying progression of complications of the lower extremities. Our results show that early diagnoses of diabetes reduces the probabilities of transitioning to a worse disease stage, death or amputation. In particular, decreasing the time screening for the onset of diabetes from every four years to once a year after age 65 saves: 54 lives, 10 amputations, and 89 lower extremity complications of 10,000 individuals by age 80.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Picone & Arseniy Yashkin & Thomas Mroz & Frank Sloan, 2013. "Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability," Working Papers 0213, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:usf:wpaper:0213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Shannon Ward & Jenny Williams & Jan C. van Ours, 2021. "Delinquency, Arrest and Early School Leaving," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 411-436, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Screening; parital observability; chronic disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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