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Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Picone

    () (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

  • Arseniy Yashkin

    () (Department of Economics, University of South Florida)

  • Thomas Mroz
  • Frank Sloan

Abstract

This study develops a discrete multiple state duration model for screen- ing a chronic disease that allows for duration dependence, unmeasured heterogeneity, partial observability of the state and endogenous treat- ment. We study whether screening for diabetes is e¤ective in delaying progression of complications of the lower extremities. Our results show that early diagnoses of diabetes reduces the probabilities of transitioning to a worse disease stage, death or amputation. In particular, decreasing the time screening for the onset of diabetes from every four years to once a year after age 65 saves: 54 lives, 10 amputations, and 89 lower extremity complications of 10,000 individuals by age 80.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Picone & Arseniy Yashkin & Thomas Mroz & Frank Sloan, 2013. "Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability," Working Papers 0213, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:usf:wpaper:0213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mroz, Thomas A., 1999. "Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: Estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 233-274, October.
    2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    3. Bo E. Honoré & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1675-1698, November.
    4. Jayanta Bhattacharya, 2005. "Specialty Selection and Lifetime Returns to Specialization Within Medicine," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    5. Liu, Haiyong & Mroz, Thomas A. & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2010. "Maternal employment, migration, and child development," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 212-228, May.
    6. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    7. Mroz, T.A. & Weir, D.R., 1988. "Structural Change In Life Cycle Fertility During The Fertility Transition: France Before And After The Revolution," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-13, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    8. Gabriel A. Picone & Frank A. Sloan & Shin-Yi Chou & Donald H. Taylor, 2003. "Does Higher Hospital Cost Imply Higher Quality of Care?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 51-62, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Screening; parital observability; chronic disease;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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