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Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle Sovinsky

    (University of Zurich and CEPR)

  • Steven Stern

    () (University of Virginia)

Abstract

Abstract This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle Sovinsky & Steven Stern, 2016. "Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 463-488, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:14:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11150-013-9236-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11150-013-9236-3
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    1. repec:bla:ecorec:v:93:y:2017:i:302:p:395-419 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly, 2017. "The Dynamics of Informal Care Provision in an Australian Household Panel Survey: Previous Work Characteristics and Future Care Provision," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 395-419, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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