IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hka/wpaper/2012-019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Modelling of Long-Term Care Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Michelle Sovinsky

    (University of Zurich)

  • Steven Stern

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and suggests directions for the literature to make progress. We discuss sources and causes of dynamics including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity); match-speciÂ…c effects; and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). Next, we evaluate the advantages of different potential data sources (NLTCS, PSID, AHEAD/HRS, SHARE, ELSA) and identify fiÂ…rst order data problems including noisy measures of wealth and family structure. We suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneity (work, geography) and measurement error. Finally, we discuss potential policy implications of dynamics including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates and direct policy implications of inertia (implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs).

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle Sovinsky & Steven Stern, 2012. "Dynamic Modelling of Long-Term Care Decisions," Working Papers 2012-019, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2012-019
    Note: FI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Sovinsky_Stern_2012_dynamic_modeling_long-term_care.pdf
    File Function: First version, June, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven Stern, 1995. "Estimating Family Long-Term Care Decisions in the Presence of Endogenous Child Characteristics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(3), pages 551-580.
    2. Michael J. Brien & Lee A. Lillard & Steven Stern, 2006. "Cohabitation, Marriage, And Divorce In A Model Of Match Quality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 451-494, May.
    3. Helmut Rainer & Thomas Siedler, 2009. "O Brother, Where Art Thou? The Effects of Having a Sibling on Geographic Mobility and Labour Market Outcomes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(303), pages 528-556, July.
    4. Liliana Pezzin & Robert Pollak & Barbara Schone, 2009. "Long-term care of the disabled elderly: do children increase caregiving by spouses?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 323-339, September.
    5. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    6. Hoerger, Thomas J & Picone, Gabriel A & Sloan, Frank A, 1996. "Public Subsidies, Private Provision of Care and Living Arrangements of the Elderly," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 428-440, August.
    7. Tennille J. Checkovich & Steven Stern, 2002. "Shared Caregiving Responsibilities of Adult Siblings with Elderly Parents," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(3), pages 441-478.
    8. Rob Alessie & Stefan Hochguertel & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Ownership of Stocks and Mutual Funds: A Panel Data Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 783-796, August.
    9. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
    10. Norton, Edward C, 1995. "Elderly Assets, Medicaid Policy, and Spend-Down in Nursing Homes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 41(3), pages 309-329, September.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Costas Meghir, 2005. "Wages, Experience and Seniority," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 77-108.
    12. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
    13. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
    14. Liliana E. Pezzin & Peter Kemper & James Reschovsky, 1996. "Does Publicly Provided Home Care Substitute for Family Care? Experimental Evidence with Endogenous Living Arrangements," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(3), pages 650-676.
    15. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1990. "Entry in Monopoly Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 531-553.
    16. Hiedemann, Bridget & Stern, Steven, 1999. "Strategic play among family members when making long-term care decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-57, September.
    17. Van Houtven, Courtney Harold & Norton, Edward C., 2004. "Informal care and health care use of older adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1159-1180, November.
    18. Meta Brown, 2006. "Informal Care and the Division of End-of-Life Transfers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(1).
    19. Norma B. Coe & Courtney Harold Van Houtven, 2009. "Caring for mom and neglecting yourself? The health effects of caring for an elderly parent," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(9), pages 991-1010, September.
    20. Maxim Engers & Steven Stern, 2002. "Long-Term Care and Family Bargaining," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(1), pages 73-114, February.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13781 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Bridget Hiedemann & Michelle Sovinsky & Steven Stern, 2018. "Will You Still Want Me Tomorrow?: The Dynamics of Families’ Long-Term Care Arrangements," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 663-716.
    23. Elie Tamer, 2003. "Incomplete Simultaneous Discrete Response Model with Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 147-165.
    24. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
    25. Meghan M. Skira, 2015. "Dynamic Wage And Employment Effects Of Elder Parent Care," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 63-93, February.
    26. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
    27. Heitmueller, Axel & Michaud, Pierre-Carl, 2006. "Informal Care and Employment in England: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2010, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Benoit Dostie & Pierre Thomas Léger, 2005. "The Living Arrangement Dynamics of Sick, Elderly Individuals," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(4), pages 989-1014.
    29. Sloan, Frank A & Picone, Gabriel & Hoerger, Thomas J, 1997. "The Supply of Children's Time to Disabled Elderly Parents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 295-308, April.
    30. Bernheim, B Douglas & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Strategic Bequest Motive," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 151-182, July.
    31. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    32. Roméo Fontaine & Agnès Gramain & Jérôme Wittwer, 2009. "Providing care for an elderly parent: interactions among siblings?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(9), pages 1011-1029, September.
    33. Hirst, Michael, 2005. "Carer distress: A prospective, population-based study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 697-708, August.
    34. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1988. "Rational Household Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 63-90, January.
    35. Liliana E. Pezzin & Robert A. Pollak & Barbara S. Schone, 2007. "Efficiency in Family Bargaining: Living Arrangements and Caregiving Decisions of Adult Children and Disabled Elderly Parents," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 69-96, March.
    36. Michael Hurd & F. Thomas Juster & James P. Smith, 2003. "Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Innovations from the HRS," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(3).
    37. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1992. "Collective Labor Supply and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 437-467, June.
    38. Daniel H. Hill, 2006. "Wealth dynamics: reducing noise in panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 845-860.
    39. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
    40. Meliyanni Johar & Shiko Maruyama, 2012. "Externality and Strategic Interaction in the Location Choice of Siblings under Altruism toward Parents," Working Papers 201201, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    41. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    42. Lara Gardner & Donna B. Gilleskie, 2012. "The Effects of State Medicaid Policies on the Dynamic Savings Patterns and Medicaid Enrollment of the Elderly," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 1082-1127.
    43. Bontemps, Christian & Robin, Jean-Marc & Berg, Gerard J. van den, 1998. "An empirical equilibrium job search model with continuously distributed heterogeneity of workers' opportunity costs of employment and firms productivities, and search on the job," Serie Research Memoranda 0002, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    44. Mroz, Thomas A., 1999. "Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: Estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 233-274, October.
    45. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    46. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
    47. Browning, Martin & Francois Bourguignon & Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Valerie Lechene, 1994. "Income and Outcomes: A Structural Model of Intrahousehold Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1067-1096, December.
    48. Liliana E. Pezzin & Barbara Steinberg Schone, 1999. "Intergenerational Household Formation, Female Labor Supply and Informal Caregiving: A Bargaining Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 475-503.
    49. Liliana Pezzin & Barbara Schone, 1999. "Parental marital disruption and intergenerational transfers: An analysis of lone elderly parents and their children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(3), pages 287-297, August.
    50. Thomas Juster & Honggao Cao & Mick Couper & Daniel Hill & Michael Hurd & Joseph Lupton & Michael Perry & James Smith, 2007. "Enhancing the Quality of Data on the Measurement of Income and Wealth," Working Papers wp151, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    51. Edward C. Norton, 1995. "Elderly Assets, Medicaid Policy, And Spend‐Down In Nursing Homes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 41(3), pages 309-329, September.
    52. Heitmueller, Axel, 2007. "The chicken or the egg?: Endogeneity in labour market participation of informal carers in England," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 536-559, May.
    53. Lundberg, Shelly & Pollak, Robert A, 1993. "Separate Spheres Bargaining and the Marriage Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 988-1010, December.
    54. Susan Ettner, 1995. "The impact of “parent care” on female labor supply decisions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(1), pages 63-80, February.
    55. Stabile, Mark & Laporte, Audrey & Coyte, Peter C., 2006. "Household responses to public home care programs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 674-701, July.
    56. Zhou Yang & Donna B. Gilleskie & Edward C. Norton, 2009. "Health Insurance, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
    57. Maurizio Mazzocco, 2007. "Household Intertemporal Behaviour: A Collective Characterization and a Test of Commitment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 857-895.
    58. Wilbert, Korina A. & Vaughn, Gerald F., 1996. "In Review," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-2.
    59. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1879 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    61. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    62. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1991. "Entry and Competition in Concentrated Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 977-1009, October.
    63. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 1996. "Female Labour Supply and Marital Status Decisions: A Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 199-235.
    64. David Byrne & Michelle S. Goeree & Bridget Hiedemann & Steven Stern, 2009. "Formal Home Health Care, Informal Care, And Family Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1205-1242, November.
    65. Oliver D. Hart & Jean Tirole, 1988. "Contract Renegotiation and Coasian Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 509-540.
    66. F. Thomas Juster & Honggao Cao & Michael Perry & Mick Cooper, 2006. "The Effect of Unfolding Brackets on the Quality of Wealth Data in the HRS," Working Papers wp113, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly, 2017. "The Dynamics of Informal Care Provision in an Australian Household Panel Survey: Previous Work Characteristics and Future Care Provision," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 395-419, September.
    2. Rapp, Thomas & Apouey, Bénédicte H. & Senik, Claudia, 2018. "The impact of institution use on the wellbeing of Alzheimer's disease patients and their caregivers," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 1-10.
    3. N. G. Glavatskaya (ed.), 2010. "Экономика Переходного Периода. Сборник Избранных Работ. 2003-2009," Books, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bridget Hiedemann & Michelle Sovinsky & Steven Stern, 2018. "Will You Still Want Me Tomorrow?: The Dynamics of Families’ Long-Term Care Arrangements," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 663-716.
    2. David C. Grabowski & Edward C. Norton & Courtney H. Van Houtven, 2012. "Informal Care," Chapters, in: Andrew M. Jones (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition, chapter 30, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly, 2017. "The Dynamics of Informal Care Provision in an Australian Household Panel Survey: Previous Work Characteristics and Future Care Provision," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 395-419, September.
    4. Quitterie Roquebert & Roméo Fontaine & Agnès Gramain, 2016. "L'aide à un parent âgé, seul et dépendant : déterminants structurels et interactions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16030, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    6. Sandrine Juin, 2016. "Care for dependent elderly people : dealing with health and financing issues," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph16-02 edited by Thomas Barnay, February.
    7. Miriam Marcén & José Molina, 2012. "Informal caring-time and caregiver satisfaction," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(6), pages 683-705, December.
    8. Matteo Lippi Bruni & Cristina Ugolini, 2016. "Delegating home care for the elderly to external caregivers? An empirical study on Italian data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 155-183, March.
    9. Meliyanni Johar & Shiko Maruyama, 2012. "Externality and Strategic Interaction in the Location Choice of Siblings under Altruism toward Parents," Working Papers 201201, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    10. Rapp, Thomas & Apouey, Bénédicte H. & Senik, Claudia, 2018. "The impact of institution use on the wellbeing of Alzheimer's disease patients and their caregivers," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Liliana E. Pezzin & Robert A. Pollak & Barbara S. Schone, 2007. "Efficiency in Family Bargaining: Living Arrangements and Caregiving Decisions of Adult Children and Disabled Elderly Parents," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 53(1), pages 69-96, March.
    12. Shiko Maruyama & Meliyanni Johar, 2017. "Do siblings free‐ride in “being there” for parents?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 277-316, March.
    13. Cristina Vilaplana Prieto & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2015. "Unmet needs in formal care: kindling the spark for caregiving behavior," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 153-184, June.
    14. Matteo Lippi Bruni & Cristina Ugolini, 2016. "Delegating home care for the elderly to external caregivers? An empirical study on Italian data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 155-183, March.
    15. Matteo Lippi Bruni & Cristina Ugolini, 2006. "Assistenza a domicilio e assistenza residenziale: politiche di intervento e analisi empirica," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 241-268.
    16. Norma B. Coe & Courtney Harold Van Houtven, 2009. "Caring for mom and neglecting yourself? The health effects of caring for an elderly parent," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(9), pages 991-1010, September.
    17. A. Ronald Gallant & Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja, 2018. "The Dynamic Spillovers of Entry: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1189-1211, March.
    18. Roméo Fontaine & Agnès Gramain & Jérôme Wittwer, 2009. "Providing care for an elderly parent: interactions among siblings?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(9), pages 1011-1029, September.
    19. Meghan M. Skira, 2015. "Dynamic Wage And Employment Effects Of Elder Parent Care," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 63-93, February.
    20. Steven Stern, 2014. "O Brother, Where Art Thou? We Need Your Help," Department of Economics Working Papers 14-08, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-Term Care; Dynamic Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2012-019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jennifer Pachon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.