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The Trade Consequences of Pricey Oil

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  • David von Below
  • Pierre-Louis Vezina

Abstract

This paper examines the trade and trade-induced welfare effects of high oil prices. Using a gravity model of trade we find that the distance elasticity of trade significantly increases with the oil price. This suggests that high oil prices make trade less global. We estimate that an increase in the oil price from 100$ to 200$ would have the similar effect as imposing a world-wide import tariff between 4% and 9%, depending on the distance between countries. In turn, such higher tade costs would lower welfare by 1.8% in the average non-oil-exporting country.

Suggested Citation

  • David von Below & Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2013. "The Trade Consequences of Pricey Oil," OxCarre Working Papers 115, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:115
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    File URL: http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/files/OxCarreRP2013115.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cristea, Anca & Hummels, David & Puzzello, Laura & Avetisyan, Misak, 2013. "Trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 153-173.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; gravity; trade costs;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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