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Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior

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  • Thomas Post
  • Katja Hanewald

Abstract

Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future mortality and survival probabilities (stochastic mortality) are important determinants of individuals’ decisions about consumption, saving, asset allocation, and retirement timing. Using data on subjective survival expectations elicited in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and corresponding life table data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), we find evidence of respondents’ awareness of stochastic mortality. We also find that respondents’ saving behavior is influenced by stochastic mortality perceptions.

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  • Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-040
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic mortality; subjective survival expectations; forecast dispersion; savings behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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