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Estimates Of Own Lethal Risks And Anchoring Effects

  • Olivier Armantier

    ()

The paper presents an experiment showing that some of the results in Benjamin, Dougan and Buschena (2001) (BDB hereafter) should be attributed to an anchoring effect. More precisely, it appears that, when asked to evaluate successively the number of deaths per lethal risks for two different populations, respondents anchor their answers in the second survey, on the answers they gave in the first survey. The experimental outcomes also indicate that, contrary to BDB's conjecture, agents' estimates of their own lethal risks exhibit the traditional biases (i.e. agents overestimate rare risks, and underestimate common risks). However, if the quality of an estimate is measured not only by its mean, but also by its variance, then the present experiment cannot dismiss unambiguously BDB's hypothesis that agents have better information about their own risks.

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File URL: http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/economics/research/papers/2003/03-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Stony Brook University, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 03-04.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:03-04
Contact details of provider: Postal: Stony Brook, NY 11794-4384
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Web page: http://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/economics/
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  1. Benjamin, Daniel K & Dougan, William R & Buschena, David, 2001. " Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part II--New Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 35-57, January.
  2. Straub, Paul G. & Murnighan, J. Keith, 1995. "An experimental investigation of ultimatum games: information, fairness, expectations, and lowest acceptable offers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 345-364, August.
  3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  4. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4742815 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2001. "The Wild Bootstrap, Tamed at Last," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 58, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  6. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2005. "Bootstrapping heteroskedastic regression models: wild bootstrap vs. pairs bootstrap," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00175910, HAL.
  7. Olivier Armantier, 2006. "Do Wealth Differences Affect Fairness Considerations?," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-13, CIRANO.
  8. Gerking, Shelby & de Haan, Menno & Schulze, William, 1988. " The Marginal Value of Job Safety: A Contingent Valuation Study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 185-99, June.
  9. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2005. "More Efficient Tests Robust to Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241.
  10. Dufwenberg, Martin & Gneezy, Uri, 2000. "Measuring Beliefs in an Experimental Lost Wallet Game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 163-182, February.
  11. Benjamin, Daniel K & Dougan, William R, 1997. "Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part I--A Reassessment of the Previous Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 115-33, November.
  12. Viscusi, W Kip, 1993. "The Value of Risks to Life and Health," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1912-46, December.
  13. Viscusi, W Kip, 1989. " Prospective Reference Theory: Toward an Explanation of the Paradoxes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 235-63, September.
  14. Bolle, Friedel, 1990. "High reward experiments without high expenditure for the experimenter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 157-167, June.
  15. Chaim Fershtman & Uri Gneezy & Frank Verboven, 2005. "Discrimination and Nepotism: The Efficiency of the Anonymity Rule," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 371-396, 06.
  16. Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-56, December.
  17. Camerer, Colin F & Hogarth, Robin M, 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 7-42, December.
  18. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00175914 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Frank, Bjorn & Schulze, Gunther G., 2000. "Does economics make citizens corrupt?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 101-113, September.
  20. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2005. "More efficient tests robust to heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00175914, HAL.
  21. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00175910 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Salanie, Francois & Treich, Nicolas, 2002. "Regulating an agent with different beliefs," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2224h6h7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  23. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1994. "Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure 1963-1987: Application of Quantile Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 405-58, March.
  24. Flachaire, Emmanuel, 2005. "Bootstrapping heteroskedastic regression models: wild bootstrap vs. pairs bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 361-376, April.
  25. J.Keith Murnighan & MIchael Saxon, 1998. "Ultimatum bargaining by children and adults," Artefactual Field Experiments 00100, The Field Experiments Website.
  26. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  27. Murnighan, J. Keith & Saxon, Michael Scott, 1998. "Ultimatum bargaining by children and adults," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 415-445, August.
  28. Hakes, Jahn K & Viscusi, W Kip, 1997. "Mortality Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Reassessment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 135-50, November.
  29. Olivier Armantier & Nicolas Treich, 2006. "Overbidding in Independant Private-Values Auctions and Misperception of Probabilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-15, CIRANO.
  30. Glenn Harrison & Elisabet Rutström, 2006. "Eliciting Subjective Beliefs about Mortality Risk Orderings," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 325-346, 03.
  31. Viscusi, W Kip & Hakes, Jahn K & Carlin, Alan, 1997. "Measures of Mortality Risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 213-33, May-June.
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