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Estimates Of Own Lethal Risks And Anchoring Effects

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  • Olivier Armantier

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Abstract

The paper presents an experiment showing that some of the results in Benjamin, Dougan and Buschena (2001) (BDB hereafter) should be attributed to an anchoring effect. More precisely, it appears that, when asked to evaluate successively the number of deaths per lethal risks for two different populations, respondents anchor their answers in the second survey, on the answers they gave in the first survey. The experimental outcomes also indicate that, contrary to BDB's conjecture, agents' estimates of their own lethal risks exhibit the traditional biases (i.e. agents overestimate rare risks, and underestimate common risks). However, if the quality of an estimate is measured not only by its mean, but also by its variance, then the present experiment cannot dismiss unambiguously BDB's hypothesis that agents have better information about their own risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Armantier, 2003. "Estimates Of Own Lethal Risks And Anchoring Effects," Department of Economics Working Papers 03-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:03-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Henrik Andersson & Petter Lundborg, 2007. "Perception of own death risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 67-84, February.
    2. David Aadland & Arthur Caplan & Owen Phillips, 2007. "A Bayesian examination of information and uncertainty in contingent valuation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 149-178, October.
    3. Henrik Andersson & Nicolas Treich, 2011. "The Value of a Statistical Life," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 17 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Andersson, Henrik, 2008. "Perception of Own Death Risk: A Reassessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk," Working Papers 2008:11, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    6. Andersson, Henrik & Lundborg, Petter, 2006. "Perception of Own Death Risk: An Analysis of Road-Traffic and Overall Mortality Risks," Working Papers 2006:1, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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