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Estimates of Own Lethal Risks and Anchoring Effects

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  • Olivier Armantier

Abstract

The paper reports on an experiment testing whether agents perceive correctly the lethal risks they face personally. The results suggest that subjects exhibit comparable biases when making predictions for their own-age-cohort, or for the entire population (i.e. agents overestimate rare risks, and underestimate common risks). The hypothesis that agents have better knowledge of their own risks, however, cannot be dismissed entirely, as responses in the own-age-cohort survey are more homogenous and better ordered. Finally, it is shown that administering surveys in succession can generate anchoring effects, which may explain why our conclusions differ markedly from a previous study. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Armantier, 2006. "Estimates of Own Lethal Risks and Anchoring Effects," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 37-56, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:37-56
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-006-6665-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Henrik Andersson & Nicolas Treich, 2011. "The Value of a Statistical Life," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Henrik Andersson, 2011. "Perception of Own Death Risk: An Assessment of Road‐Traffic Mortality Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(7), pages 1069-1082, July.
    3. Gabriele Suder & Saynakhone Inthavong, 2008. "New Health Risks and Sociocultural Contexts: Bird Flu Impacts on Consumers and Poultry Businesses in Lao PDR," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 1-12, February.
    4. Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Brañas-Garza, Pablo & Ciacci, Riccardo & Ramírez, Ericka G. Rascón, 2022. "Anchors matter: Eliciting maternal expectations on educational outcomes," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Henrik Andersson & Petter Lundborg, 2007. "Perception of own death risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 67-84, February.
    7. David Aadland & Arthur Caplan & Owen Phillips, 2007. "A Bayesian examination of information and uncertainty in contingent valuation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 149-178, October.
    8. Eva Lermer & Bernhard Streicher & Rainer Sachs & Martina Raue & Dieter Frey, 2016. "Thinking Concretely Increases the Perceived Likelihood of Risks: The Effect of Construal Level on Risk Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 623-637, March.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-040 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andersson, Henrik & Lundborg, Petter, 2006. "Perception of Own Death Risk: An Analysis of Road-Traffic and Overall Mortality Risks," Working Papers 2006:1, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risks perception; Health and safety hazard; Anchoring; Rational expectation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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