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Ambiguous life expectancy and the demand for annuities

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuel Thibault

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CDED - Centre de Droit Economique et du Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia)

Abstract

In this paper, ambiguity aversion to uncertain survival probabilities is introduced in a static life-cycle model with a bequest motive to study the optimal demand for annuities. Provided that annuities' return is sufficiently large, and notably when it is fair, positive annuitization is known to be the optimal strategy of ambiguity neutral individuals. Conversely, we show that the demand for annuities decreases with ambiguity aversion and that there exists a finite degree of aversion above which the demand is non-positive: the optimal strategy is then to either sell annuities short or to hold zero annuities if the former option is not available. To conclude, ambiguity aversion appears to be a relevant candidate for explaining the annuity puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuel Thibault, 2018. "Ambiguous life expectancy and the demand for annuities," Post-Print halshs-02072559, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02072559
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-018-9658-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Nan-Wei & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2021. "The annuity puzzle and consumption hump under ambiguous life expectancy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 76-88.
    2. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Attanasi, Giuseppe & Thibault, Emmanuel, 2020. "An experimental test of the under-annuitization puzzle with smooth ambiguity and charitable giving," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 694-717.
    3. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Kalk, Andrei, 2021. "Why do we postpone annuity purchases?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Eric André & Antoine Bommier & François Le Grand, 2022. "The impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on annuity and saving choices," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 33-56, August.
    5. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2020. "Survival ambiguity and welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 20-42.
    6. Drouhin, Nicolas, 2015. "A rank-dependent utility model of uncertain lifetime," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 208-224.
    7. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Olivier Renault, 2024. "Dynamic decision-making when ambiguity attitudes depend on exogenous events," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(2), pages 269-295, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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