IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2009-022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Lee-Carter Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Post

Abstract

A deferred annuity typically includes an option-like right for the policyholder. At the end of the deferment period, he may either choose to receive annuity payouts, calculated based on a mortality table agreed to at contract inception, or receive the accumulated capital as a lump sum. Considering stochastic mortality improvements, such an option could be of substantial value. Whenever mortality improves less than originally expected, the policyholder will choose the lump sum and buy an annuity on the market granting him a better price. If, however, mortality improves more than expected, the policyholder will choose to retain the deferred annuity. We use a realistically calibrated life-cycle consumption/saving/asset allocation model and calculate the welfare gains of deferred annuities under stochastic Lee- Carter mortality. Our results are relevant both for individual retirement planning and for policymakers, especially if legislation makes annuitization, at least in part, mandatory. Our results also indicate the maximal willingness to pay for the mortality option inherent in deferred annuities, which is of relevance to insurance pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Post, 2009. "Individual Welfare Gains from Deferred Life-Annuities under Stochastic Lee-Carter Mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2009-022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October.
    2. Bauer Daniel & Weber Frederik, 2008. "Assessing Investment and Longevity Risks within Immediate Annuities," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Olivia S. Mitchell, 1999. "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1299-1318, December.
    4. David I. Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 1998. "Self-Control and Saving for Retirement," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 91-196.
    5. Jeffrey R. Brown & Jeffrey R. Kling & Sendhil Mullainathan & Marian V. Wrobel, 2008. "Why Don’t People Insure Late-Life Consumption? A Framing Explanation of the Under-Annuitization Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 304-309, May.
    6. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Dus, Ivica, 2008. "Following the rules: Integrating asset allocation and annuitization in retirement portfolios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 396-408, February.
    7. Thomas Post & Helmut Gründl & Hato Schmeiser, 2006. "Portfolio management and retirement: what is the best arrangement for a family?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(3), pages 265-285, September.
    8. Richard, Scott F., 1975. "Optimal consumption, portfolio and life insurance rules for an uncertain lived individual in a continuous time model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-203, June.
    9. Ludkovski, Michael & Young, Virginia R., 2008. "Indifference pricing of pure endowments and life annuities under stochastic hazard and interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 14-30, February.
    10. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Spivak, Avia, 1981. "The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 372-391, April.
    11. Joachim Inkmann & Paula Lopes & Alexander Michaelides, 2011. "How Deep Is the Annuity Market Participation Puzzle?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 279-319.
    12. Huang, Rachel J. & Tsai, Jeffrey T. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2008. "Government-provided annuities under insolvency risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 377-385, December.
    13. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "Optimum and Risk-Class Pricing of Annuities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 240-251, January.
    14. Cannon, Edmund & Tonks, Ian, 2008. "Annuity Markets," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199216994.
    15. repec:nsr:niesrd:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Brugiavini, Agar, 1993. "Uncertainty resolution and the timing of annuity purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 31-62, January.
    17. Lopes, Paula & Michaelides, Alexander, 2007. "Rare events and annuity market participation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 82-91, June.
    18. Bauer, Daniel & Kling, Alexander & Russ, Jochen, 2008. "A Universal Pricing Framework for Guaranteed Minimum Benefits in Variable Annuities," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 621-651, November.
    19. Dushi, Irena & Webb, Anthony, 2004. "Household annuitization decisions: simulations and empirical analyses," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 109-143, July.
    20. Menoncin, Francesco, 2008. "The role of longevity bonds in optimal portfolios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 343-358, February.
    21. Gupta, Aparna & Li, Zhisheng, 2007. "Integrating optimal annuity planning with consumption-investment selections in retirement planning," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 96-110, July.
    22. Sachi Purcal & John Piggott, 2008. "Explaining Low Annuity Demand: An Optimal Portfolio Application to Japan," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 493-516.
    23. Helmut Gründl & Thomas Post & Roman N. Schulze, 2006. "To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 19-41.
    24. Pelsser, Antoon, 2003. "Pricing and hedging guaranteed annuity options via static option replication," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 283-296, October.
    25. Vidal-Meli , Carlos & Lej Rraga-Garc A, Ana, 2006. "Demand for life annuities from married couples with a bequest motive," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 197-229, July.
    26. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "The timing of annuitization: Investment dominance and mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 135-144, January.
    27. Julie R. Agnew & Lisa R. Anderson & Jeffrey R. Gerlach & Lisa R. Szykman, 2008. "Who Chooses Annuities? An Experimental Investigation of the Role of Gender, Framing, and Defaults," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 418-422, May.
    28. Ballotta, Laura & Haberman, Steven, 2006. "The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 195-214, February.
    29. Jeffrey R. Brown & James M. Poterba, 1999. "Joint Life Annuities and Annuity Demand by Married Couples," NBER Working Papers 7199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Zvi Bodie & John B. Shoven & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions in the U.S. Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bodi88-1.
    31. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," NBER Working Papers 14055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
    33. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Optimal Gradual Annuitization: Quantifying the Costs of Switching to Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1038.
    34. Hainaut, Donatien & Devolder, Pierre, 2006. "Life Annuitization: Why and how Much?," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(02), pages 629-654, November.
    35. Roman N. Schulze & Thomas Post, 2010. "Individual Annuity Demand Under Aggregate Mortality Risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 423-449.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic Mortality; Deferred Annuitization; Retirement Decisions; Annuity Puzzle; Intertemporal Utility Maximization;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.