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Citations for "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis"

by Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West

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  1. Pablo Pincheira B., 2007. "Hidden Predictability in Economics: The Case of the Chilean Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 435, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 272009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Bermingham, Colin, 2008. "Quantifying the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Exchange Rate Appreciation, Capital Flows and Excess Liquidity: Adjustment and Effectiveness of Policy Responses," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp87, June.
  6. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  8. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  9. Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Discussion Papers in Economics 11442, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012. "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia´s exchange rate survey," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009999, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers e07-15, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2008. "The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 22, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  14. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2009. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," Working Papers 09.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  15. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
  16. Ince, Onur, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates out-of-sample with panel methods and real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
  17. Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.
  18. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," MPRA Paper 53684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2009. "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," Staff Reports 387, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2008. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 13804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.
  23. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher, 2013. "Hard Times," Scholarly Articles 12172786, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
  26. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Erik Hillebrand & Tae-Hwy Lee & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2012. "Let´s do it again: bagging equity premium predictors," Textos para discussão 604, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  28. Marcel Fratzscher & Lucio Sarno & Gabriele Zinna, 2013. "The Scapegoat Theory of Exchange Rates: The First Tests," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1290, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  29. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
  30. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  31. Todd Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Paper 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  32. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  33. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2013. "Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?," MPRA Paper 46356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. : Carlo A. Favero & : Arie E. Gozluklu & : Haoxi Yang, 2013. "Demographics and The Behavior of Interest Rates," Working Papers wpn13-10, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  35. Jose Luiz Rossi Junior & Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felicio, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(1), pages 49-71, April.
  36. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 319-341, June.
  37. Ana María Abarca G. & Felipe Alarcón G. & Pablo Pincheira B. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 57-80, August.
  38. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
  39. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  41. Erkko Etula, 2009. "Broker-dealer risk appetite and commodity returns," Staff Reports 406, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  42. Jorge Selaive & Pablo Pincheira B., 2008. "External Imbalances, Valuation Adjustments and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence of Predictability in an Emerging Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 460, Central Bank of Chile.
  43. Qiu, Mei & Pinfold, John F. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2011. "Predicting foreign exchange movements using historic deviations from PPP," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 485-497, October.
  44. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  45. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "Mind your ps and qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 275-281, August.
  46. Moura, Marcelo, 2008. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Insper Working Papers wpe_119, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  47. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  48. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  49. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Sellin, Peter, 2007. "Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts," Working Paper Series 213, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  52. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
  53. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  54. Nelson Mark, 2008. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 012, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2012.
  55. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Pablo Pincheira B., 2008. "Predictibilidad Encubierta en Economía: El Caso del Tipo de Cambio Nominal Chileno," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 137-142, April.
  57. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  58. Richard Ashley & Haichun Ye, 2012. "On the Granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4221-4238, November.
  59. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  60. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  62. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
  63. Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  64. Barbara Rossi, 2012. "Comment on "Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting during the Financial Crisis"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 106-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Mariano, Roberto S. & Preve, Daniel, 2012. "Statistical tests for multiple forecast comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 123-130.
  66. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: an Asset Pricing Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2010-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  67. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
  68. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
  69. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2007. "Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével
    [Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange ra
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 501-528.
  70. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
  71. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2012. "Markov switching and exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-365.
  72. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  73. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
  74. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz J., 2012. "The Usefulness of factor models in forecasting the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_273, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  75. Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  76. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011. "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
  77. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  78. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  79. Tausch, Arno, 2013. "The hallmarks of crisis. A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles," MPRA Paper 48356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Kaijian He & Kin Keung Lai & Guocheng Xiang, 2012. "Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1018-1043, April.
  81. Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Comment on "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 453-470 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  83. Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora & Pedro Castro & Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Does Central Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Policy?," IMF Working Papers 12/60, International Monetary Fund.
  84. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Pablo Pincheira & Carlos Medel, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 669, Central Bank of Chile.
  86. Christophe Amat & Tomasz Michalski & Gilles Stoltz, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates better than the random walk thanks to machine learning techniques," Working Papers halshs-01003914, HAL.
  87. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2014. "Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 72-91, March.
  88. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Álvaro García Marín, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile With an Accurate Benchmark," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 514, Central Bank of Chile.
  89. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.