Publications

by members of

Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies Section
Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Washington, District of Columbia (United States)

Working papers

2009

1. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Michael T. Kiley, 2009. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "Demand-driven job separation: reconciling search models with the ins and outs of unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "Vacancy posting, job separation and unemployment fluctuations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. David Powell & Hui Shan, 2009. "Income Taxes, Compensating Differentials, and Occupational Choice: How Taxes Distort the Wage-Amenity Decision," Working Papers 705, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
6. Hui Shan, 2009. "Reversing the trend: the recent expansion of the reverse mortgage market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

2008

1. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
4. Leon W. Berkelmans, 2008. "Imperfect information and monetary models: multiple shocks and their consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Regis Barnichon, 2008. "Productivity, aggregate demand and unemployment fluctuations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. Hui Shan, 2008. "Property taxes and elderly mobility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
7. Hui Shan, 2008. "The effect of capital gains taxation on home sales: evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
8. Hui Shan, 2008. "Property taxes and elderly labor supply," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

2007

1. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. John M. Roberts, 2007. "Learning, Sticky Inflation, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Kiel Working Papers 1365, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
5. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim, 2007. "Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
6. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
7. Shanaka J. Peiris & Regis Barnichon, 2007. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
8. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "The Shimer Puzzle and the Correct Identification of Productivity Shocks," CEP Discussion Papers dp0823, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]

2006

1. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2006. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States - the Fed from 1996-2003," Working Paper Series 610, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
2. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2006. "Robustifying learnability," Working Paper Series 593, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
3. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2006. "Robustifying Learnability," 2006 Meeting Papers 439, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
4. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2006. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Thomas Laubach & Robert J. Tetlow & John C. Williams, 2006. "Macroeconomic factors in the term structure of interest rates when agents learn," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 83, Society for Computational Economics.
6. Michael T. Kiley, 2006. "A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
7. Roberts, John M, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 812, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

2005

1. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal policy projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Peter von zur Muehlen & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Robustifying Learnability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 437, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
4. Ironside, Brian & Tetlow, Robert J., 2005. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," CEPR Discussion Papers 5305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
5. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2005. "Robustifying learnability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. Svensson, Lars O & Tetlow, Robert J, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," MPRA Paper 839, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
7. Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr. & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "External habit and the cyclicality of expected stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
8. Stanley Zin & Thomas Tallarini, 2005. "Portfolio Choice and Permanent Income," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 408, Society for Computational Economics.
9. Michael Kiley, 2005. "A Quantitative Comparison Of Sticky-Price And Sticky-Information Models Of Price Setting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 183, Society for Computational Economics.
10. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2005. "Temporary partial expensing in a general-equilibrium model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
11. Leon Berkelmans, 2005. "Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-06, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
12. John M. Roberts, 2005. "Using structural shocks to identify models of investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
13. David L. Reifschneider & John M. Roberts, 2005. "Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound on interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
14. Thomas Laubach & Michael Wise, 2005. "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in Iceland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 426, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
15. Thomas Laubach, 2005. "Fiscal Relations Across Levels of Government in the United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 462, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]

2004

1. Peter von zur Muehlen & Robert J. Tetlow, 2004. "Inflation in the 1970s in the U.S.: Misspecification, Learning and Sunspots," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 240, Society for Computational Economics.
2. Michael Kiley, 2004. "Is Moderate-To-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 193, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
3. Michael T. Kiley, 2004. "Is moderate-to-high inflation inherently unstable?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. Hannes Suppanz & Michael Wise & Michael Kiley, 2004. "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 398, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
5. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. John M. Roberts, 2004. "Monetary policy and inflation dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

2003

1. Peter von zur Muehlen & Robert J. Tetlow, 2003. "Inflation in the 1970s in the U.S.: misspecification, learning and sunspots," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 126, Society for Computational Economics.
2. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2003. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Shifts in Trend MFP Growth: A DGE Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 93, Society for Computational Economics.
4. Rochelle M. Edge, 2003. "A utility-based welfare criterion in a model with endogenous capital accumulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. John M. Roberts, 2003. "Modeling aggregate investment: a fundamentalist approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
7. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

2002

1. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Misspecification: the robust approach to bubbles with model uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 335, Society for Computational Economics.
3. Michael Kiley, 2002. "How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 167, Society for Computational Economics.
4. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2002. "Taxation and the Taylor principle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

2001

1. Michael T. Kiley, 2001. "An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Rochelle M. Edge, 2001. "Technical Appendix to "The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models"," Technical Appendices edge01, Review of Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
3. John M. Roberts, 2001. "How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. John M. Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the productivity trend using time-varying parameter techniques," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2001. "The effect of past and future economic fundamentals on spending and pricing behavior in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
7. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2001. "Activist vs. non-activist monetary policy: optimal rules under extreme uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
8. Robert J. Tetlow and Peter von zur Muehlen, 2001. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: does robust policy help?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 18, Society for Computational Economics.

2000

1. Robert J. Tetlow, 2000. "Inflation targeting and target instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2000. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Robert Tetlow, 2000. "The Fed Is Not As Ignorant As You Think," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 202, Society for Computational Economics.
4. Michael T. Kiley, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals in a production economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The effect of monetary policy on residential and structures investment under differential project planning and completion times," International Finance Discussion Papers 671, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The equivalence of wage and price staggering in monetary business cycle models," International Finance Discussion Papers 672, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
7. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 673, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
8. Robert Tetlow, Peter von zur Muehlen, 2000. "Monetary Policy Attenuation As Robust Response To Misspecified Dynamics In A Forward Looking Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 302, Society for Computational Economics.

1999

1. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1999. "Simplicity versus optimality the choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Frederico S. Finan & Robert Tetlow, 1999. "Optimal control of large, forward-looking models efficient solutions and two examples," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Partial adjustment and staggered price setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Computers and growth with costs of adjustment: will the future look like the past?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. Flint Brayton & John M. Roberts & John C. Williams, 1999. "What's happened to the Phillips curve?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
7. John M. Roberts & Norman J. Morin, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
8. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1999. "Why is the Fed So Reluctant to React?," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 631, Society for Computational Economics.

1998

1. Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

1997

1. Antulio Bomfim & Robert Tetlow & Peter Von Zur Muehlen & John Williams, 1997. "Expectations, learning and the costs of disinflation: experiments using the FRB/US model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
3. Michael T. Kiley, 1997. "Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. Michael T. Kiley, 1997. "The supply of skilled labor and skill-based technological progress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
5. Michael T. Kiley, 1997. "Staggered price setting and real rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
6. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
7. Laubach, T. & Posen, A.S., 1997. "Disciplined Discretion: Monetary Targeting in Germany and Switzerland," Princeton Essays in International Economics 206, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.

1996

1. Coletti, D. & Hunt, B. & Rose, D. & Tetlow, R., 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model. Part 3 , the Dynamic Model : QPM," Technical Reports 75, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
2. Michael T. Kiley, 1996. "Endogenous price stickiness and business cycle persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
3. Michael T. Kiley, 1996. "The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

1995

1. Tiff Macklem & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1995. "GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICITS IN CANADA: A Macro Simulation Analysis," Macroeconomics 9506003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

1994

1. John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. John M. Roberts, 1994. "How sticky are prices? an analysis of the services sector," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 153, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1992

1. David E. Lebow & John M. Roberts & David J. Stockton, 1992. "Economic performance under price stability," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. John M. Roberts, 1992. "Limited-information estimates of New Keynesian price-adjustment models," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1990

1. John M. Roberts, 1990. "The sources of business cycles: a monetarist interpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1990. "Optimal interest rate rules with information from money and auction markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 120, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
3. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1990. "Predicting inflation with commodity prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 118, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
4. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1990. "Sticky inflation and interest rate rules with auction prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 117, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
5. F. Brayton & W. Kan & P.A. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen, 1990. "Here's looking at you: modelling and policy use of auction price expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
6. P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta & P. von zur Muehlen, 1990. "Some problems with identification in parametric models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 144, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1989

1. John M. Roberts & David J. Stockton & Charles S. Struckmeyer, 1989. "An evaluation of the sources of aggregate price rigidity," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 99, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. John M. Roberts, 1989. "Does overtime use affect marginal cost?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 95, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
3. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Peter von zur Muehlen & J.S. Mehta, 1989. "Co-integration: is it a property of the real world?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1988

1. John M. Roberts, 1988. "Evidence on price adjustment costs in U.S. manufacturing industry," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1988. "On a problem in identifying linear parametric models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
3. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1988. "On a problem in identifying linear parametric models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1987

1. P.A.V.B. Swamy & P. von zur Muehlen, 1987. "Further thoughts on testing for casuality with econometric models," Special Studies Papers 211, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1986

1. P.A.V.B Swamy & A.B. Kennickell & P. von zur Muehlen, 1986. "Forecasting money demand with econometric models," Special Studies Papers 196, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1985

1. Michael J. Boskin & Marc S. Robinson & John M. Roberts, 1985. "New Estimates of Federal Government Tangible Capital and Net Investment," NBER Working Papers 1774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1984

1. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Roger K. Conway & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1984. "The foundations of econometrics: are there any?," Special Studies Papers 182, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1983

1. P.A.V.B. Swamy & P. von zur Muehlen & P.A. Tinsley & H.T. Farr, 1983. "On logical validity and econometric modelling: the case of money supply," Special Studies Papers 180, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1982

1. P.A. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen & G. Fries, 1982. "The short-run volatility of money stock targeting," Special Studies Papers 169, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. P. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen, 1982. "A maximum probability approach to short-run policy," Special Studies Papers 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
3. P.A. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen & G. Fries, 1982. "Two papers on the volatility of money stock targeting," Special Studies Papers 169, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
4. P.A. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen, 1982. "A measure of the cost of money market volatility associated with money stock targeting," Special Studies Papers 169, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1979

1. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1979. "Monopolistic competition and sequential search," Special Studies Papers 131, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1977

1. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1977. "Optimal bands in short-run monetary policy," Special Studies Papers 98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1977. "Some partial equilibrium of tax reform on corporate policy," Special Studies Papers 97, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1976

1. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1976. "On the rationality of discontinuous monetary policy," Special Studies Papers 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1976. "Anticipating a price freeze or how not to get caught with your prices down," Special Studies Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

1971

1. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1971. "On the optimal monopoly price over time," Special Studies Papers 21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
2. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1971. "Price behavior in U.S. manufacturing: an application of dynamic monopoly pricing," Special Studies Papers 23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
3. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1971. "N-person dynamic oligopoly: the case of conjectured price variations under certainty," Special Studies Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Undated

1. Tiff Macklem & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, . "GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICITS IN CANADA: A Macro Simulation Analysis," Working Papers 95-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
2. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, . "Expectations, Learning and the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 9, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
3. Lars Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Thomas Tallarini, . "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," GSIA Working Papers 1997-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
4. Thomas Tallarini & Harold Zhang, . "External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns," GSIA Working Papers 1997-26, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
5. Thomas Tallarini, . "Risk-Sensitive Real Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 1997-35, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
6. Thomas Tallarini, . "Whose Habit Is It Anyway?," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E22, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]

Journal articles

2009

1. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2009. "Robustifying learnability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 296-316, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Robert J. Tetlow, 2009. "Commentary on The challenges of estimating potential output in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 291-296. [Downloadable!]

2008

1. Robert J. Tetlow, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Traget Instability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 151-192, December. [Downloadable!]
2. Edge, Rochelle M. & Kiley, Michael T. & Laforte, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2512-2535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
4. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2007

1. Tetlow, Robert J., 2007. "On the robustness of simple and optimal monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1397-1405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 101-125, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
4. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 173-201, June. [Downloadable!]
5. Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Pricing Models: A Bayesian DSGE Approach for the U.S. Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 127-154, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2006

1. Reifschneider, David L. & Roberts, John M., 2006. "Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 314-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Fujiwara, Ippei & McAdam, Peter & Roberts, John M., 2006. "Monetary policy at the zero interest bound: A model comparison exercise," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 305-313, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September. [Downloadable!]
4. Laubach, Thomas, 2006. "Wood, A history of central banking in Great Britain and the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 508-512, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2005

1. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December. [Downloadable!]
2. Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr. & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1023-1048, May. [Downloadable!]
3. Rochelle Edge & Michael Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
4. Michael T. Kiley, 2005. "A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

2004

1. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Robert Tetlow, 2004. "Berc Rustem and Melendres Howe, Algorithms for Worst-Case Design and Applications to Risk Management. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002. ISBN 0-691-09154-4," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 301-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Michael T. Kiley, 2004. "Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 909-936, October. [Downloadable!]
4. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2004. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 305-325, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2003

1. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 392-406, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
3. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
4. Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Signalling commitment with monetary and inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 985-1009, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
5. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
6. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
7. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2002

1. Michael Kiley, 2002. "The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(5), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
2. Kiley, Michael T, 2002. "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 283-98, May.
3. Rochelle M. Edge, 2002. "The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 559-585, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2001

1. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Simplicity versus optimality: The choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 245-279, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Kiley, Michael T., 2001. "Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 171-215, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
4. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

2000

1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Kiley, Michael T, 2000. "Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 28-53, February.

1999

1. David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & John Williams, 1999. "Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-19. [Downloadable!]
2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. Kiley, Michael T, 1999. "The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 708-24, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1998

1. Robert Tetlow & John C. Williams, 1998. "Implementing price stability bands, boundaries and inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
2. Kiley, Michael T., 1998. "Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 153-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1997

1. Kiley, Michael T., 1997. "Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 215-221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1995

1. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1994

1. Stephen Poloz & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1994. "The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1994(Autumn), pages 23-38. [Downloadable!]
2. Roberts, John M & Stockton, David J & Struckmeyer, Charles S, 1994. "Evidence on the Flexibility of Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 142-50, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. von zur Muehlen, Peter, 1994. "An Optimal Interest Rate Rule with Information from Money and Auction Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 917-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1992

1. Roberts, John M, 1992. "Evidence on Price Adjustment Costs in U.S. Manufacturing Industry," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 399-417, July.

1990

1. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Kennickell, Arthur B. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 1990. "Comparing forecasts from fixed and variable coefficient models: The case of money demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 469-477, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1988

1. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Von Zur Muehlen, Peter, 1988. "Further thoughts on testing for causality with econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 105-147. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1985

1. P. A. V. B. Swamy & R. K. Conway & P. Von Zur Muehlen, 1985. "The foundations of econometrics -are there any," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 75-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1982

1. Tinsley, P. A. & von zur Muehlen, P. & Fries, G., 1982. "The short-run volatility of money stock targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 215-237. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1981

1. Tinsley, P. & Von Zur Muehlen, P., 1981. "A maximum probability approach to short-run policy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 31-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1980

1. Peter von zur Muehlen, 1980. "Monopolistic competition and sequential search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 257-281, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
2. Von Zur Muehlen, Peter, 1980. "The 'flexible accelerator' and optimization with a finite horizon," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 21-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

1979

1. Von zur Muehlen, Peter, 1979. "Price dispersion in atomistic competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 327-332. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.