IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1369.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation

Author

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented shift of consumption from services to goods. We study this demand reallocation in a multi-sector model featuring sticky prices, input-output linkages, and labor reallocation costs. Reallocation costs hamper the increase in the supply of goods, causing inflationary pressures. These pressures are amplified by the fact that goods prices are more flexible than services prices. We estimate the model allowing for demand reallocation, sectoral productivity, and aggregate labor supply shocks. The demand reallocation shock explains a large portion of the rise in U.S. inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Ferrante & Sebastian Graves & Matteo Iacoviello, 2023. "The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1369
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2023.1369
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1369.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/IFDP.2023.1369?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    2. Monika Merz & Eran Yashiv, 2007. "Labor and the Market Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1419-1431, September.
    3. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(5), pages 2011-2071.
    4. Francois de Soyres & Ana Maria Santacreu & Henry L. Young, 2023. "Demand-Supply Imbalance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(1), pages 21-50, January.
    5. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    6. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    8. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    9. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia & Alexander L. Wolman, 2022. "Relative Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Paper 22-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Alessandro Galesi & Omar Rachedi, 2019. "Services Deepening and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1261-1293.
    12. Simon Gilchrist & Raphael Schoenle & Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 785-823, March.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    14. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Ghassibe, Mishel, 2021. "Monetary policy and production networks: an empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 21-39.
    16. Luca Fornaro & Federica Romei, 2022. "Monetary Policy in an Unbalanced Global Economy," Working Papers 1313, Barcelona School of Economics.
    17. Fornaro, Luca & Romei, Federica, 2022. "Monetary Policy during Unbalanced Global Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 16971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2022. "The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 387-433.
    19. Jennifer La'O & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1295-1336, May.
    20. Joris Tielens, 2019. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," 2019 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Resolving the missing deflation puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 15-34.
    22. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2016. "Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 165-199, January.
    23. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Deniz Igan & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2024. "Sectoral price dynamics in the last mile of post-Covid-19 disinflation," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    2. Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2022. "Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    4. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    5. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ghassibe, Mishel, 2021. "Monetary policy and production networks: an empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 21-39.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    9. Luo, Shaowen & Villar, Daniel, 2023. "Propagation of shocks in an input-output economy: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 26-46.
    10. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    11. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019. "Production Networks: A Primer," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 635-663, August.
    12. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    14. Jennifer La'O & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1295-1336, May.
    15. Pellet, Thomas & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2023. "Rigid production networks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 86-102.
    16. Niko Hauzenberger & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Bayesian State‐Space Modeling for Analyzing Heterogeneous Network Effects of US Monetary Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(4), pages 1261-1291, October.
    17. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    18. Mandel, Antoine & Veetil, Vipin P., 2021. "Monetary dynamics in a network economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    19. Tony Zhang, 2022. "Monetary Policy Spillovers through Invoicing Currencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 129-161, February.
    20. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Giammetti, Raffaele & Lopreite, Milena & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2019. "Monetary policy, crisis and capital centralization in corporate ownership and control networks: A B-Var analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 55-66.
    21. Kohei Matsumura & Tomomi Naka & Nao Sudo, 2023. "Analysis of the Transmission of Carbon Tax using a Multi-Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-2, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sectoral Reallocation; Inflation; Input-Output Models; Moment-matching exercise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.