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The Tail that Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. How risky are the big U.S. banks?
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-10-03 17:58:45
  2. Central Banks and Systematic Risks
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-03-21 17:41:06
  3. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
    by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:

  1. Ulrich Doraszelski & Gregory Lewis & Ariel Pakes, 2018. "Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 565-615, March.
  2. Pagel, Michaela, 2019. "Prospective gain-loss utility: Ordered versus separated comparison," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 62-75.
  3. Ilut, Cosmin & Saijo, Hikaru, 2021. "Learning, confidence, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 354-376.
  4. Noori, Mohammad, 2024. "Stock-oil comovements through fear, uncertainty, and expectations: Evidence from conditional comoments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 529-551.
  5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7l10qorvrv8tuafch6e0ert238 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
  7. François Gourio, 2019. "Has Business Fixed Investment Really Been Unusually Low?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
  9. Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 123-146, January.
  10. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
  12. Maiko Koga & Haruko Kato, 2017. "Behavioral Biases in Firms' Growth Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-9, Bank of Japan.
  13. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2023. "Censored density forecasts: Production and evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 714-734, August.
  14. Niu, Yingjie & Yang, Jinqiang & Zou, Zhentao, 2024. "Disaster learning and aggregate investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
  15. Sergio Salas, 2022. "A liquidity crunch in an endogenous growth model with human capital," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 1199-1238, January.
  16. Styliani Panetsidou & Angelos Synapis, 2025. "Equity financing during the Covid-19 economic downturn," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1391-1430, April.
  17. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan, 2021. "Hedging macroeconomic and financial uncertainty and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 23-45.
  18. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
  19. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
  20. Dasol Kim & Luke Olson & Toan Phan, 2024. "Bank Competition and Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Paper 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  21. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023. "The Impact of Risk Cycles on Business Cycles: A Historical View," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(7), pages 2922-2961.
  22. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Matthew OBrien & Andrei Shleifer, 2024. "Long-Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 311-347.
  23. Farmer, Leland E & Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2024. "Learning about the Long Run," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tn1s1hp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  24. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
  25. Robert Ulbricht & Ludwig Straub, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," 2015 Meeting Papers 199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  26. Dasol Kim & Luke M. Olson & Toan Phan, 2024. "Bank Competition and Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers 24-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
  27. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2024. "Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  28. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
  29. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
  30. Makridis, Christos A. & Wang, Tao, 2024. "Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social networks and the macroeconomic response of consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  31. Wen-Tai Hsu & Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin & Han Yang, 2024. "Long-run belief-scarring effects of COVID-19 in a global economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(3), pages 709-752, November.
  32. Evangelos Salachas & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2024. "The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1018-1041, July.
  33. Julius Loermann, 2018. "The Impact of CHF/EUR Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Swiss Exports to the Eurozone: Evidence from a Threshold VAR," FIW Working Paper series 189, FIW, revised Feb 2019.
  34. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Alessandro Cantelmo, 2022. "Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 473-496, June.
  36. Maenhout, Pascal J. & Vedolin, Andrea & Xing, Hao, 2025. "Robustness and dynamic sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  37. Dorofeenko Victor & Lee Gabriel & Salyer Kevin & Strobel Johannes, 2020. "Risk shocks with time-varying higher moments," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-20, April.
  38. Xu, Xiangyun & Li, Xing & Meng, Jie & Hu, Xueqi & Ge, Yingfan, 2024. "The impact of the tail risk of demand on corporate investment: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  39. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 779-824, June.
  41. Xinlong Li & Andrew T. Ching, 2024. "How Does a Firm Adapt in a Changing World? The Case of Prosper Marketplace," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 673-693, May.
  42. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
  43. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
  44. Eugene Larsen-Hallock & Adam Rej & David Thesmar, 2022. "Expectations Formation with Fat-tailed Processes: Evidence from Sales Forecasts," Papers 2210.10169, arXiv.org.
  45. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
  46. Sean Hundtofte & Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2019. "Credit Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 26354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Schaal, Edouard & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2023. "Herding through booms and busts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  48. Kim, Chi Hyun, 2021. "Optimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions," Working Papers 32, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  49. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  50. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
  51. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
  52. Jean-Pierre Danthine, 2017. "Taux négatifs: made for Switzerland," Working Papers halshs-01571650, HAL.
  53. Ayush Jha & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2024. "Beyond the Traditional VIX: A Novel Approach to Identifying Uncertainty Shocks in Financial Markets," Papers 2411.02804, arXiv.org.
  54. Mykola Babiak & Roman Kozhan, 2021. "Growth Uncertainty, Rational Learning, and Option Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp682, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  55. Huang, Yi, 2021. "Salience of hazard disclosure and house prices: Evidence from Christchurch, New Zealand," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  56. Sandile Hlatshwayo & Anne Oeking & Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan & David Corvino & Ananya Shukla & Mr. Lamin Y Leigh, 2018. "The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach," IMF Working Papers 2018/195, International Monetary Fund.
  57. Eggers, Andrew C. & Ellison, Martin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "The economic impact of recession announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 40-52.
  58. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2023. "Big news: Climate change and the business cycle," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 158, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
  59. Julian Kozlowski, 2019. "Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 19, August.
  60. Chi Hyun Kim, 2021. "Optimism Gone Bad? The Persistent Effects of Traumatic Experiences on Investment Decisions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1952, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  61. Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2024. "Understanding uncertainty shocks and the role of black swans," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  62. Edouard Schaal & Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, 2020. "Herding cycles," Economics Working Papers 1714, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2023.
  63. Francesca Vinci & Omar Licandro, 2020. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Discussion Papers 2020/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  64. Gai, Prasanna & Haworth, Cameron, 2023. "Macroprudential policymakers with cautious expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  65. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Armageddon and the stock market: US, Canadian and Mexican market responses to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 112-127.
  66. Fanelli, Sebastián & Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín, 2021. "Resolution of financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  67. Alejandro G Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2021. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1150-1185.
  68. Ravi Bansal & Mariano Max Croce & Wenxi Liao & Samuel Rosen, 2019. "Uncertainty-Induced Reallocations and Growth," NBER Working Papers 26248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Jihye Jeon, 2022. "Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 53(1), pages 226-259, March.
  70. Moreira, Alan, 2019. "Capital immobility and the reach for yield," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 907-951.
  71. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
  72. Sebastián Fanelli & Martín Gonzalez-Eiras, 2021. "Resolution of Final Crises," Working Papers wp2021_2113, CEMFI.
  73. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
  74. Jean-Pierre Danthine, 2017. "Taux négatifs: made for Switzerland," Working Papers hal-01884328, HAL.
  75. Martin Guzman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 2021. "Pseudo-wealth and Consumption Fluctuations [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 372-391.
  76. Heejeong Kim, 2022. "Inequality, Disaster risk, and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 187-216, July.
  77. Rosen Valchev & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers," 2017 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  78. Julian Kozlowski, 2020. "COVID-19: Scarring Body and Mind," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 43, December.
  79. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7l10qorvrv8tuafch6e0ert238 is not listed on IDEAS
  80. Tian, Can, 2022. "Learning and firm dynamics in a stochastic equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  81. Sonan Memon, 2023. "Expectation Shocks and Business Cycles," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:2, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  82. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Lee Ohanian, 2018. "The Lack of European Productivity Growth: Causes and Lessons for the U.S," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 07 Sep 2018.
  83. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  84. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Orlik, Anna & Veldkamp, Laura, 2018. "What are uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-15.
  85. Kenneth Rogoff, 2017. "Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 47-66, Summer.
  86. Müller, Henrik & Hornig, Nico, 2020. ""I heard the News today, oh Boy": An updated Version of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) – and some general thoughts on news-based economic indicators," DoCMA Working Papers 2-2020, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund Center for Data-based Media Analysis (DoCMA).
  87. Gong, Aibo & Ke, Shaowei & Qiu, Yawen & Shen, Rui, 2022. "Robust pricing under strategic trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  88. Boubekeur Baba, 2024. "The comovements of tail risks in time and frequency domains: evidence from US and emerging Asian stock markets," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
  89. Ortega, Francesc & Taṣpınar, Süleyman, 2018. "Rising sea levels and sinking property values: Hurricane Sandy and New York’s housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 81-100.
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