IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/19-390.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inequality, Disaster risk, and the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Heejeong Kim

    (Concordia University)

Abstract

What drove large declines in aggregate quantities during the Great Recession? I study this question by building a dynamic stochastic overlapping generations economy in which households hold both low-return liquid and high-return illiquid assets. In this economy, I explore how aggregate quantities and the distribution of households respond to a recession driven by an increased risk of a further economic downturn. I find that an increase in disaster risk, and an empirically consistent fall in TFP, explain a significant fraction of the declines in aggregate consumption and investment observed during the Great Recession. Inequality is essential in driving these aggregate results. Comparing my model to an economy without illiquid assets, I show that household differences in both liquid and illiquid assets play a crucial role in amplifying the effects of an increase in disaster risk. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Heejeong Kim, 2022. "Inequality, Disaster risk, and the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 187-216, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-390
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2021.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.06.006
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2021.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cociuba, Simona E. & Prescott, Edward C. & Ueberfeldt, Alexander, 2018. "US hours at work," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 87-90.
    3. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    4. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(6), pages 1055-1107.
    5. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Mehra, Rajnish, 1992. "The equity premium and the allocation of income risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 509-532.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    7. David A. Benson & Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French, 2012. "Consumption and the Great Recession," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 36(Q I), pages 1-16.
    8. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    9. Nakajima, Makoto, 2012. "A quantitative analysis of unemployment benefit extensions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 686-702.
    10. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555, Elsevier.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    13. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    14. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    16. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "A Macroeconomic Model With Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1361-1418, May.
    18. Karen Kopecky & Richard Suen, 2010. "Finite State Markov-chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 701-714, July.
    19. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    20. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke & Lien Pham‐Dao & Volker Tjaden, 2019. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 255-290, January.
    21. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
    22. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    23. Sewon Hur, 2018. "The Lost Generation of the Great Recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 179-202, October.
    24. Mariacristina De Nardi, 2004. "Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 743-768.
    25. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    26. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
    27. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    28. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Comparison of solutions to the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 4-27, January.
    29. SeHyoun Ahn & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Thomas Winberry & Christian Wolf, 2018. "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-75.
    30. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino, 2018. "Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 141-166, Summer.
    31. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "The Tail That Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 2839-2879.
    32. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, January.
    33. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    34. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Savings After Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 177-204, October.
    35. David Domeij & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 523-554, May.
    36. Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3730-3778.
    37. Reiter, Michael, 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty by backward induction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 28-35, January.
    38. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    39. Lee E. Ohanian, 2002. "Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 26(Spr).
    40. Reiter, Michael, 2009. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 649-665, March.
    41. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    42. Roozbeh Hosseini, 2015. "Adverse Selection in the Annuity Market and the Role for Social Security," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 941-984.
    43. Aubhik Khan & Ben Lidofsky, 2019. "Growth, Uncertainty and Business Cycles in an Overlapping Generations Economy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1459, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    44. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jang, Youngsoo, 2021. "Democracy or Optimal Policy: Income Tax Decisions without Commitment," MPRA Paper 110475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jang, Youngsoo, 2021. "Democracy or Optimal Policy: Income Tax Decisions without Commitment," MPRA Paper 110466, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    2. Röhrs, Sigrid & Winter, Christoph, 2017. "Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Ralph Luetticke, 2021. "Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2019. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," NBER Working Papers 26302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    6. SeHyoun Ahn & Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Thomas Winberry & Christian Wolf, 2018. "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-75.
    7. Adrien Auclert & Bence Bardóczy & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "Using the Sequence‐Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous‐Agent Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2375-2408, September.
    8. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella, 2017. "Saving and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 280-300, October.
    9. Takeki Sunakawa, 2020. "Applying the Explicit Aggregation Algorithm to Heterogeneous Macro Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 845-874, March.
    10. Karsten O. Chipeniuk, 2020. "Optimal Grid Selection for the Numerical Solution of Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 883-928, December.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
    12. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Pierre Mabille, 2019. "Aggregate Precautionary Savings Motives," 2019 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Katz, Nets Hawk & Walker, Todd B., 2022. "Households, auctioneers, and aggregation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Nils Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2021. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Systematic Monetary Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 50, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Zetlin-Jones, Ariel & Shourideh, Ali, 2017. "External financing and the role of financial frictions over the business cycle: Measurement and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    18. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2018. "International Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 935-984, April.
    19. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    20. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke, 2019. "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.