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Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks

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Cited by:

  1. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  2. Aslan, Alper & Destek, Mehmet Akif & Okumus, İlyas, 2017. "Sectoral carbon emissions and economic growth in the US: Further evidence from rolling window estimation method," MPRA Paper 106961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nico Frederick Katzke, 2015. "Identifying Periods of US Housing Market Explosivity," Working Papers 15-03, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  4. Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Forecasting Under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1485-1501, December.
  5. Martin Kalthaus, 2020. "Knowledge recombination along the technology life cycle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 643-704, July.
  6. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
  7. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  8. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
  9. Luca Nocciola, 2022. "Finite Sample Forecast Properties and Window Length Under Breaks in Cointegrated Systems," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 167-196, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  10. Tom Boot & Andreas Pick, 2017. "A near optimal test for structural breaks when forecasting under square error loss," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-039/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Forecasting large datasets with Bayesian reduced rank multivariate models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 735-761, August.
  12. Hu, Junjie & López Cabrera, Brenda & Melzer, Awdesch, 2021. "Advanced statistical learning on short term load process forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-020, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
  13. Liu, Guan-Chun & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2016. "The nexus between insurance activity and economic growth: A bootstrap rolling window approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 299-319.
  14. Caterina Forti Grazzini & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Forecasting yield spreads under crisis-induced multiple breakpoints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1656-1664, December.
  15. Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
  16. Pierre Salmon, 2003. "The assignment of powers in an open-ended European Union," Post-Print hal-00445601, HAL.
  17. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  18. Zhao, Qian & Qin, Chuan & Ding, Longfei & Cheng, Ying-Yue & Vătavu, Sorana, 2023. "Can green bond improve the investment efficiency of renewable energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  19. Ilham Haouas & Naceur Kheraief & Arusha Cooray & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Time-Varying Casual Nexuses Between Remittances and Financial Development in Some MENA Countries," Working Papers 1294, Economic Research Forum, revised 2019.
  20. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Timmermann, A., 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0901, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  21. Kai-Hua WANG & Chi-Wei SU & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Ji MA & Cristina IOVU, 2017. "Purchasing Power Parity In China: An Empirical Investigation Based On Bootstrap Rollingwindow Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 166-181, December.
  22. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Kelvin Onyibor & Gbenga Daniel Akinsola, 2021. "The impact of major macroeconomic variables on foreign direct investment in Nigeria: evidence from a wavelet coherence technique," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-24, January.
  23. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "短期资本流动、经济政策不确定性与恐慌指数—基于时变分析框架下的研究 [Short-term Capital Flow, Economic Policy Uncertainty and VIX—Evidence from a Time-varying Analysis Framework]," MPRA Paper 73213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Li Qiang & Wang Liming & Qiu Fei, 2015. "Detecting the Structural Breaks in GARCH Models Based on Bayesian Method: The Case of China Share Index Rate of Return," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 321-333, August.
  25. Qin, Meng & Su, Yun Hsuan & Zhao, Zhengtang & Mirza, Nawazish, 2023. "The politics of climate: Does factionalism impede U.S. carbon neutrality?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 954-966.
  26. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," Working Papers 1494, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
  27. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2022. "Consumption‐based carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in Chile," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1123-1137, March.
  28. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
  29. Ballinari, Daniele & Behrendt, Simon, 2020. "Structural breaks in online investor sentiment: A note on the nonstationarity of financial chatter," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  30. Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017. "A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01317974, HAL.
  31. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
  32. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2015. "Characterising the South African Business Cycle: Is GDP Difference-Stationary or Trend-Stationary in a Markov-Switching Setup?," Working Papers 15-04, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  33. Asif Raihan, 2023. "An econometric evaluation of the effects of economic growth, energy use, and agricultural value added on carbon dioxide emissions in Vietnam," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 665-696, September.
  34. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
  35. Barrera, Carlos, 2013. "El sistema de predicción desagregada: Una evaluación de las proyecciones de inflación 2006-2011," Working Papers 2013-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  36. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  37. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Financial implications of fourth industrial revolution: Can bitcoin improve prospects of energy investment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  38. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  39. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xue-Feng & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Can Bitcoin hedge the risks of geopolitical events?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  40. Cheng, Xian & Wu, Peng & Liao, Stephen Shaoyi & Wang, Xuelian, 2023. "An integrated model for crude oil forecasting: Causality assessment and technical efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  41. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2015. "How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
  42. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "International stock return predictability: Is the role of U.S. time-varying?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 121-146, February.
  43. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  44. Khalid Khan & Jiluo Sun & Sinem Derindere Koseoglu & Ashfaq U. Rehman, 2021. "Revisiting Bitcoin Price Behavior Under Global Economic Uncertainty," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
  45. Felix Nutakor & Sylvestre Bizumuremyi & Jinke Li & Wei Liu, 2020. "Does the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO 2 Emissions Exist for Rwanda? Evidence from Bootstrapped Rolling-Window Granger Causality Test," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-11, October.
  46. Hännikäinen Jari, 2017. "Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
  47. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  48. Su, Chi Wei & Shao, Xuefeng & Jia, Zhijie & Nepal, Rabindra & Umar, Muhammad & Qin, Meng, 2023. "The rise of green energy metal: Could lithium threaten the status of oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  49. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2014. "The dynamic relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from Pacific Rim countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 220-246.
  50. Alessandra Canepa, & Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Athanasios & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2022. "Forecasting Ination: A GARCH-in-Mean-Level Model with Time Varying Predictability," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202212, University of Turin.
  51. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
  52. Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Yang, Ke & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Forecasting the oil futures price volatility: Large jumps and small jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-330.
  53. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  54. David Su & Xin Li & Oana-Ramona Lobonþ & Yanping Zhao, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and housing returns in Germany: Evidence from a bootstrap rolling window," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(1), pages 43-61.
  55. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-61.
  56. Cai, Yifei, 2016. "货币增速剪刀差与股票市场收益率的时变格兰杰因果关系研究 [A Study on the Time-varying Granger Causality Relation of Scissors Gap of Money Supply and Stock Market Return]," MPRA Paper 73369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Chi-Wei Su & Jiao-Jiao Fan & Hsu-Ling Chang & Xiao-Lin Li, 2016. "Is there Causal Relationship between Money Supply Growth and Inflation in China? Evidence from Quantity Theory of Money," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 702-719, August.
  58. Xue GAO & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "Does exchange rate always affect the number of inbound tourists significantly in China?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 55-72, Spring.
  59. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
  60. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-33.
  61. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Housing and the Great Depression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2966-2981, August.
  62. Zhang, Wenlong & Zhang, Gaiyan & Helwege, Jean, 2022. "Cross country linkages and transmission of sovereign risk: Evidence from China’s credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  63. Yingying Xu & Zhi‐Xin Liu & Chi‐Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2019. "Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 380-398, December.
  64. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  65. Yongchen Zhao, 2021. "The robustness of forecast combination in unstable environments: a Monte Carlo study of advanced algorithms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 173-199, July.
  66. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
  67. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya, 2018. "Money's causal role in exchange rate: Do divisia monetary aggregates explain more?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 402-417.
  68. Khalid KHAN & Chi-Wei SU & Nicoleta - Claudia MOLDOVAN & De-Ping XIONG, 2017. "Distinctive Characteristics of the Causality between the PPI and CPI: Evidence from Romania," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 51(2), pages 103-123.
  69. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
  70. Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal forecast under structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 965-987, August.
  71. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Zichao Jia & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 169-187, December.
  72. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
  73. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Demet Beton Kalmaz, 2020. "Ongoing Debate Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Wavelet Analysis," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2032-2051, September.
  74. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
  75. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  76. Liu, Guanchun & He, Lei & Yue, Yiding & Wang, Jiying, 2014. "The linkage between insurance activity and banking credit: Some evidence from dynamic analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-265.
  77. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 173-187, September.
  78. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Does oil price really matter for the wage arrears in Russia?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
  79. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
  80. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
  81. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
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  114. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen & Fengping Tian, 2015. "Realized Volatility Forecast of Stock Index Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 57-82, January.
  115. Khan, Khalid & SU, Chi-Wei & Khurshid, Adnan & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2018. "How Often Does the Exchange Rate Granger Cause the Stock Market in Pakistan? A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 25(1), October.
  116. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Blockchain: A carbon-neutral facilitator or an environmental destroyer?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 604-615.
  117. Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos,Alexandros & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Unified Theory for the Large Family of Time Varying Models with Arma Representations: One Solution Fits All," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202008, University of Turin.
  118. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
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