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From Rebellion to Electoral Violence. Evidence from Burundi

Listed author(s):
  • Andrea Colombo
  • Olivia D'Aoust
  • Olivier Sterck

We aim at understanding the triggers of electoral violence, which spoiled 80% ofelections in Africa during the last decades. We focus on Burundi, a country wherepolls were organized in 2010, only few months after the end of a long-lasting civilwar. We find that an acute polarization between ex-rebels’ groups is highly conduciveto electoral violence. In particular, we predict a five-fold increase in electoralviolence between the lowest- and highest-polarized municipality. However, neitherethnic nor political cleavages significantly determine such electoral malpractices.These results are robust to numerous specifications. We therefore argue that policiessupporting the transition of ex-rebel groups from warfare to the political arenashould be reinforced.

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File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/172950/1/2014-33-COLOMBO_DAOUST_STERCK-fromrebellion.pdf
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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2014-33.

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Length: 45 p.
Date of creation: Jul 2014
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/172950
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  1. Elise Huillery, 2009. "History Matters: The Long-Term Impact of Colonial Public Investments in French West Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 176-215, April.
  2. Eli Berman & Michael J. Callen & Clark Gibson & James D. Long, 2014. "Election Fairness and Government Legitimacy in Afghanistan," NBER Working Papers 19949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James A. Robinson & Ragnar Torvik, 2009. "The Real Swing Voter's Curse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 310-315, May.
  4. Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2012. "Has Democratization Reduced Infant Mortality In Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence From Micro Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1294-1317, December.
  5. Michael J. Gilligan & Eric N. Mvukiyehe & Cyrus Samii, 2013. "Reintegrating Rebels into Civilian Life," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(4), pages 598-626, August.
  6. Jerry Hausman, 2001. "Mismeasured Variables in Econometric Analysis: Problems from the Right and Problems from the Left," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 57-67, Fall.
  7. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
  8. Philip Verwimp & Tom Bundervoet, 2009. "Civil War and the Welfare of Extended Households: Evidence from Longitudinal Data from Burundi," HiCN Working Papers 70, Households in Conflict Network.
  9. Dercon, Stefan & Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana, 2012. "Triggers and Characteristics of the 2007 Kenyan Electoral Violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 731-744.
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