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From Rebellion to Electoral Violence. Evidence from Burundi

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  • Andrea Colombo
  • Olivia D'Aoust
  • Olivier Sterck

Abstract

We aim at understanding the triggers of electoral violence, which spoiled 80% ofelections in Africa during the last decades. We focus on Burundi, a country wherepolls were organized in 2010, only few months after the end of a long-lasting civilwar. We find that an acute polarization between ex-rebels’ groups is highly conduciveto electoral violence. In particular, we predict a five-fold increase in electoralviolence between the lowest- and highest-polarized municipality. However, neitherethnic nor political cleavages significantly determine such electoral malpractices.These results are robust to numerous specifications. We therefore argue that policiessupporting the transition of ex-rebel groups from warfare to the political arenashould be reinforced.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Colombo & Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier Sterck, 2014. "From Rebellion to Electoral Violence. Evidence from Burundi," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-33, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/172950
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    Cited by:

    1. Remme, Michelle & Siapka, Mariana & Sterck, Olivier & Ncube, Mthuli & Watts, Charlotte & Vassall, Anna, 2016. "Financing the HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic sources: Moving beyond a normative approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 66-76.
    2. Sterck, Olivier, 2016. "Natural resources and the spread of HIV/AIDS: Curse or blessing?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 271-278.
    3. Paul Collier & Olivier C. Sterck & Richard Manning, 2015. "The Moral and Fiscal Implications of Anti-Retroviral Therapies for HIV in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-05, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Olivier Sterck, 2015. "Fighting for votes: theory and evidence on the causes of electoral violence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-19-2, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; electoral violence; polarization; demobilization; burundi;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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