Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels
In 2009, hostilities were brought to an end in Burundi when the FNL rebel group laid down weapons. In exchange for peace, ex-rebels benefited from a disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) program to finance their return to civilian life. A few years earlier, another rebel group (CNDD-FDD) had gone through the same program. In this paper, we assess the impact of this complex program from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. First, we develop an agricultural model in order to predict the impact of demobilization cash transfers on beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. Then, we test the theoretical model by using a household panel dataset collected in rural Burundi. We find that, in the short run, the cash payments received by ex-combatants had a positive direct impact on purchases and investments of beneficiaries, as well as an indirect positive impact on non-beneficiaries. We also find that the direct and indirect impacts on purchases vanish in the long run. These results suggest that reinsertion grants may favour the acceptation of ex-combatants in their local communities in the short run, but are most likely not sufficient for peace to hold. More generally, it emphasizes the importance of considering spillovers in the evaluation of development programs.
|Date of creation:||15 Apr 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/ires
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ciro Avitabile, 2011. "Spillover Effects in Healthcare Programs: Evidence on Social Norms and Information Sharing," CSEF Working Papers 271, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 14 Mar 2011.
- Michael J. Gilligan & Eric N. Mvukiyehe & Cyrus Samii, 2013. "Reintegrating Rebels into Civilian Life," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(4), pages 598-626, August.
- Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, 01.
- Blattman, Christopher & Miguel, Edward, 2009.
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
qt90n356hs, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- J. Taylor & Irma Adelman, 2003. "Agricultural Household Models: Genesis, Evolution, and Extensions," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 33-58, January.
- Margherita Comola, 2008. "Educational programs in rural Nepal: Peer communication and information spillovers," PSE Working Papers halshs-00585981, HAL.
- Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002.
"Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis,"
World Bank Publications,
The World Bank, number 14101, June.
- Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates For Welfare Analysis," Working Papers 217, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Beegle, Kathleen & De Weerdt, Joachim & Dercon, Stefan, 2010.
"Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2011. "Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 1010-1033, August.
- Beegle, Kathleen & De Weerdt, Joachim & Dercon, Stefan, 2008. "Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4798, The World Bank.
- Kim, Jooseop & Alderman, Harold & Orazem, Peter F, 1999. "Can Private School Subsidies Increase Enrollment for the Poor? The Quetta Urban Fellowship Program," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(3), pages 443-65, September.
- Hubert, M. & Vandervieren, E., 2008. "An adjusted boxplot for skewed distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5186-5201, August.
- Gustavo J. Bobonis & Frederico Finan, 2009. "Neighborhood Peer Effects in Secondary School Enrollment Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 695-716, November.
- Macours, Karen & Vakis, Renos, 2009. "Changing households'investments and aspirations through social interactions : evidence from a randomized transfer program," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5137, The World Bank.
- Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2009. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 486-508, March.
- Philip Verwimp & Tom Bundervoet, 2009. "Civil War and the Welfare of Extended Households: Evidence from Longitudinal Data from Burundi," HiCN Working Papers 70, Households in Conflict Network.
- Nigel Key & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain De Janvry, 2000. "Transactions Costs and Agricultural Household Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 245-259.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2013009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.