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Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Gábor Békés

    () (Institute of Economics of CERS-HAS
    Central European University
    CEPR)

  • Lionel Fontagné

    (University Paris 1
    CEPII)

  • Balázs Muraközy

    (Institute of Economics of CERS-HAS)

  • Vincent Vicard

    (CEPII
    Banque de France)

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines how exporting firms adapt to the uncertainty stemming from demand volatility. By using monthly customs data from France, we decompose exports into different extensive and intensive margins including two novel margins: the number of months the firms exported (frequency) and the average export value per month. We establish four empirical patterns. First, firms export less to markets with higher demand volatility. Second, this effect is mainly explained by the frequency margin. Third, volatility affects the frequency margin through two channels: indirectly through lower trade volume and directly through logistics re-optimization. In particular, our results suggest that firms send less frequent, larger shipments to more uncertain markets conditional on total exports. Fourth, the effect of demand volatility is magnified on markets with longer time-to-ship. We propose that these observations are in line with simple stochastic inventory management approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2017. "Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 779-807, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:153:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10290-017-0286-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-017-0286-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Graziano, Alejandro, 2015. "Customs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 119-137.
    2. Jerónimo Carballo & Georg Schaur & Alejandro Graziano & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Transit Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7688, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2016. "Effect of import time on export patterns," IDE Discussion Papers 566, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Straume, Hans-Martin, 2015. "Trade costs and Norwegian salmon export," Working Papers in Economics 06/15, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    5. Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp & Shuyao Yang, 2018. "Where Has the Rum Gone? Firms’ Choice of Transport Mode under the Threat of Maritime Piracy," ifo Working Paper Series 271, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Jerónimo Carballo & Georg Schaur & Alejandro Graziano & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Transit Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 94658, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    8. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Kaboski, Joseph P. & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2015. "Microeconomic uncertainty, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity; Transport costs; Frequency of trade; Inventory model; Firms;

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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