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Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions

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  • Crozet, Matthieu
  • Hinz, Julian
  • Stammann, Amrei
  • Wanner, Joschka

Abstract

How do exporting firms react to sanctions? Specifically, which firms are willing — or capable — to serve the market of a sanctioned country? We investigate this question for four sanctions episodes using monthly data on the universe of French exporting firms. We draw on recent econometric advances in the estimation of dynamic fixed effects binary choice models. We find that the introduction of new sanctions in Iran and Russia significantly lowered firm-level probabilities of serving these sanctioned markets, while the (temporary) lifting of the U.S. sanctions on Cuba and the removal of sanctions against Myanmar had no or only small trade-inducing effects, respectively. Additionally, the impact of sanctions is very heterogeneous along firm dimensions and by case particularities. Firms that depend more on trade finance instruments are more strongly affected, while prior experience in the sanctioned country considerably softens the blow of sanctions, and firms can be partly immune to the sanctions effect if they are specialized in serving “crisis countries”. Finally, we find suggestive evidence for sanctions avoidance by exporting indirectly via neighboring countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:134:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000362
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103683
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2022. "Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10100, CESifo.
    3. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "'Crime and Punishment'? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2021. "Cheap talk? Financial sanctions and non-financial firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Moghaddasi Kelishomi, Ali & Nisticò, Roberto, 2022. "Employment effects of economic sanctions in Iran," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Wei, Hao & Tu, Yue & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    8. Jun Qian & Xiao Sun & Ziyang Wang & Yueting Chai, 2022. "Negative Feedback Punishment Approach Helps Sanctioning Institutions Achieve Stable, Time-Saving and Low-Cost Performances," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Teemu Makkonen & Timo Mitze, 2021. "Geo-political conflicts, economic sanctions and international knowledge flows," Papers 2112.00564, arXiv.org.
    10. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    12. Kim, Kyoochul, 2020. "Finding Loopholes in Sanctions: Effects of Sanctions on North Korea’s Refined Oil Prices," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 42(4), pages 1-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sanctions; Trade; Foreign policy; Extensive margin; Firm behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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