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The cost of sanctions: Estimating lost trade with gravity

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  • Hinz, Julian

Abstract

Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries, including those of sanctioning countries themselves. I gauge the global impact of three recent sanctions regimes using a structural gravity framework and quantify the "lost trade" in a general equilibrium counterfactual exercise. Each of the episodes, sanctions against Iran, Russia and Myanmar, are instructive in their own way, due to the different nature of bilateral trade and severity of measures applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The cost of sanctions: Estimating lost trade with gravity," Kiel Working Papers 2093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Morteza Ghomi, 2022. "Who is afraid of sanctions? The macroeconomic and distributional effects of the sanctions against Iran," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 395-428, July.
    3. Heydarian, Samira & Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, 2023. "Financial Sanctions and the Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods in Iran: DID Method," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 101-134.
    4. Oliver Fritz & Elisabeth Christen & Franz Sinabell & Julian Hinz, 2017. "Russia's and the EU's Sanctions. Economic and Trade Effects, Compliance and the Way Forward," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60669, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sanctions; embargo; General equilibrium counterfactuals; foreign policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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