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Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports

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  • Matthieu Crozet
  • Julian Hinz

Abstract

Economic sanctions are a frequent instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict, they aim to elicit a change in the policies of foreign governments by damaging their economy. However, sanctions are not costless for the sending economy, where domestic firms involved in business with the target countries might incur collateral damages. This paper evaluates these costs in terms of export losses of the diplomatic crisis that started in 2014 between the Russian Federation and 37 countries, (including the United States, the EU, and Japan) over the Ukrainian conflict. We first gauge the global impact of the sanctions' regime using a structural gravity framework and quantify the trade losses in a general equilibrium counterfactual analysis. We estimate this loss at US\$60.2 billion from 2014 until mid-2015. Interestingly, we find that the bulk of the impact stems from products that are not directly targeted by Russian retaliations (taking the form of an embargo on imports of agricultural products). This result suggests that most of the losses are not attributable to the Russian retaliation but to Western sanctions. We then investigate the underlying mechanism at the firm level using French customs data. Results indicate that neither consumer boycotts nor perceived country risk can account for the decline in exports of products that are not targeted by the Russian embargo. Instead, the disruption of the provision of trade finance services is found to have played an important role.

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  • Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The ties that bind: Geopolitical motivations for economic integration," Kiel Working Papers 2085, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Bělín, Matěj & Hanousek, Jan, 2021. "Which sanctions matter? analysis of the EU/russian sanctions of 2014," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 244-257.
    3. Jonas Frank, 2017. "The empirical consequences of trade sanctions for directly and indirectly affected countries," FIW Working Paper series 174, FIW.
    4. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2019. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Kiel Working Papers 2119, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. V. Arkhipova V. & В. Архипова В., 2017. "Современный санкционный режим в отношении России: характеристика и глобальный аспект // Current Sanctions Regime Against Russia: Characteristics and Global Aspect," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 2, pages 13-19.
    7. Saule Burkitbayeva & Johan Swinnen & Nele Warrinnier, 2020. "Food and nutrition security in Eurasia: Evolution, shocks and policies," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 6(1), pages 6-25, March.
    8. Peeva, Aleksandra, 2019. "Did sanctions help Putin?," Discussion Papers 2019/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Yuliya Zabyelina, 2020. "The Long Arm of Anti‐corruption: Extraterritoriality and Anti‐corruption Targeted Sanctions," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(4), pages 535-540, September.
    10. Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2020. "Russian food embargo and the lost trade [Nonparametric counterfactual predictions in neoclassical models of international trade]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 684-718.
    11. Massimiliano Di Pace, 2017. "Eu and Usa sanctions and their impact on Russia: a logical-qualitative assessment," Argomenti, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics, vol. 7(7), pages 1-16, May-Augus.
    12. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The cost of sanctions: Estimating lost trade with gravity," Kiel Working Papers 2093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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    14. Elisabeth Christen & Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59227, June.
    15. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effects of economic sanctions on trade: New evidence from a panel PPML gravity approach," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 17-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    16. I. O. Nesterov & S. F. Sutyrin, 0. "Finnish economy in front of the new challenges: currency component," International Trade and Trade Policy, ФГБОУ ВО "Ð Ð¾Ñ Ñ Ð¸Ð¹Ñ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸Ñ‡ÐµÑ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑƒÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑ€Ñ Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÑ‚ им. Г.Ð’. Плеханова".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Diplomatic sanctions; Trade finance; Boycott;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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