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Russian food embargo and the lost trade

Author

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  • Angela Cheptea
  • Carl Gaigné

Abstract

We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a triple-difference estimation strategy. We quantify the effects on the value of trade, the trade price of products covered by the ban, and the new trade flows generated by the ban. Our results point to an average e 125 million loss in monthly EU28 exports to Russia due to the ban (with Lithuania, Poland, and Germany bearing the largest losses). However, only 45% of the drop in EU28 exports of banned products to Russia would be due to the ban. In addition, EU products banned from the Russian market were sold elsewhere at lower prices. The reorientation of EU exports to other markets translated into selling larger amounts to old trade partners, as well as in accessing new markets. EU member states were unevenly affected by the ban. Germany and Poland compensated their large losses on the Russian market by a strong increase in exports to other trade partners (mostly intra-EU), at the expense of other EU countries, such as France and Denmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2018. "Russian food embargo and the lost trade," Working Papers SMART 18-05, INRAE UMR SMART.
    • Handle: RePEc:rae:wpaper:201805
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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